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Re:Amtrak Could Turn a Profit for the First Time by anovikov on Monday November 18, 2019 @02:49AM (#21562612)
Expensive and desirable locations - sure, but we are speaking of mass society, of everyone - everyone in the U.S. is dependent on cars, not just people in "expensive and desirable locations". These actually have less of that dependence.

This idea have been marketed and for a good reason, it was good way to save U.S. population from Soviet nuclear threat - in a way Coomies could neither counter, nor replicate on their side - when Commies launch their nukes, it's much better if most people find themselves in separate houses with large tracts of land and little combustible materials, and good basements to protect from fallout, and in a few days, can emerge from there and drive their cars in whichever direction civil defense points as safer.

Re:Amtrak Could Turn a Profit for the First Time by bobthepanda on Monday November 18, 2019 @05:03AM (#21563089)
This is not really a thing; pretty much every hurricane and wildfire evacuation has shown that car infrastructure is extremely bad for evacuation.
Re:Amtrak Could Turn a Profit for the First Time by anovikov on Monday November 18, 2019 @05:16AM (#21563150)
If you need to evacuate everyone at once, sure. But they would evacuate gradually over many days from ~4 days to ~2 weeks from the attack, basically as soon as they will become desperate running out of drinkable water (something a house with a heater tank in the attic is also a good thing for).

No public infrastructure will work for that - bus drivers will quickly die of radiation sickness or just refuse to do their work, but for one, one-way trip to save your own ass it's okay.

Essentially, this is why suburbanisation come to being: war planners realized exactly the thing you are pointing out: that evacuating people in a crisis - while the Soviet bombers will be flying (it was before ICBMs) was an impractical idea, it will kill more people than it will save; but what works instead, is to evacuate people in advance: just make them live far from city centers which can be attacked. And redline the city centers: let only people you don't care about surviving, live there.

In 1950s Soviet Union, "workers and peasants" lived in villages and suburbs, these were replaceable anyway and killing them had little benefit. Difficult to replace cadres - engineers, most qualified workers, high ranking military, Party officials and such - lived in posh Stalinist apartments in city centers, and would perish inevitably. In 1950s U.S., it was already other way around. Soviet Union could do nothing about that: they simply couldn't afford an individual house, and thus inevitably, individual car, for everyone - they still can't. It was a clear win and moved a balance in the Cold War a great lot in U.S. favor.

One thing to realize here, it will best of all work if U.S. attacked first - then they choose the timing and attack in late evening in the U.S. when everyone is at home already, are warned, and don't leave their houses in the morning to avoid being caught in road panic, and have some hours to prepare for the Commie attack such as letting go of any combustibles, covering car so it doesn't suck fallout particles in, and stocking water and if possible, food.

Re:Amtrak Could Turn a Profit for the First Time by bobthepanda on Monday November 18, 2019 @04:51PM (#21568496)
Pripyat had 53,000 people evacuated by bus in one hour.

Hurricane evacuations even a week in advance are horrible by car. Highway infrastructure simply cannot cope with large movements of people in one direction.

Re:Amtrak Could Turn a Profit for the First Time by itsnevereasy on Monday November 18, 2019 @04:44AM (#21563012)
That’s an interesting claim that I haven’t heard before — do you have any sources discussing this that I can read?
Re:Amtrak Could Turn a Profit for the First Time by anovikov on Monday November 18, 2019 @05:21AM (#21563169)
Re:Amtrak Could Turn a Profit for the First Time by sandworm101 on Monday November 18, 2019 @06:14AM (#21563382)
A mobile and well-resourced population is a cornerstone of US disaster planning. When a hurricane is comming and an evacuation order given, the assumption is that most americans can drive themselves.

Mass transit is cool, but evacuating an entire modern city on busses isnt viable. (Inter-city rail connections cannot be scaled up in such times.)

Re:Amtrak Could Turn a Profit for the First Time by jeromegv on Monday November 18, 2019 @08:46AM (#21564234)
Makes no sense. You can’t evacuate a full city on cars. It would get clogged all the way. You would want to use the entire bus system. Don’t know why you say it’s not viable, you can scale up passenger/meters much more with buses.
Re:Amtrak Could Turn a Profit for the First Time by bluGill on Monday November 18, 2019 @09:32AM (#21564548)
No you can't. The problem is we don't have enough buses to do that. Every mass bus system large enough to have significant people on the bus works on the model of the bus running all day with a large number of people who use it. That is it goes in full, heads back out, and picks up more people before heading back in.

In the evacuation model those buses drive out a day full, and then need to drive a day to get back before they can pick up more people. It just doesn't work. No transit system has enough buses.

That is before we point out that if you have anywhere near that many people served you probably have some rail systems that cannot operate outside their lines (third rail power or overhead electric)

Cars have the advantage of there are enough of them. Note that in most evacuation situations the cars are full. (the roads don't have the capacity, but the cars do)

Re:Amtrak Could Turn a Profit for the First Time by shkkmo on Monday November 18, 2019 @10:37AM (#21565102)
It is much easier to stage extra buses near areas that will need rapid evacuation then it is to scale up road infrastructure. There is a fixed limit on howany people can be moved by car out of major metropolitan areas, conversely, most major metropolitan areas are with 12 hours drive of other major metropolitan bus areas which means that well staged buses could easily arrive to rapidly scale evacuation speed. Finally, as car based evacuation reaches it's limit, the rate dramatically decreases, there is no such issue with buses.
Re:Amtrak Could Turn a Profit for the First Time by sandworm101 on Monday November 18, 2019 @10:58AM (#21565307)
It is more complicated than just moving people. Anyone traveling by bus isnt bringing stuff with them. They need shelter. The US evacuation model assumes most people will bring enough with them in thier cars to be self-sustaining for a period of days. The assumption is tgat 90+% of people wont need government help... due to thier independant mobility of people and stuff.

See the recent evac of fort mcmurray canada. That was all cars for hundreds of miles. No hope for busses there.

Re:Amtrak Could Turn a Profit for the First Time by shkkmo on Monday November 18, 2019 @11:44AM (#21565762)
The "car" evacuation plan seemed to have verged on failure in Fort McMurray. People didn't have enough gas and the roads were clogged. The 25,000 people who fled north ran short of supplies quickly.

So the assumption that "90% of people won't need government help" clearly failed to hold true for this relatively small evacuation of 88k people.

Re:Amtrak Could Turn a Profit for the First Time by bluGill on Monday November 18, 2019 @02:36PM (#21567399)
There are logistical issues to be improved on, but if (big if) we learn from experience we can solve them.

The fact remains, most people who are told to evacuate by car will pack their suitcases and enough spending cash so that they can live on their own once they get out. The majority will end up sleeping on the floor of friends/relatives, so once you get them out of danger you don't think about them again. All that is required is enough warning that they can pack (if you don't have this much warning nothing can work anyway), and enough fuel (accounting for gridlock!) along the way.

Government needs to deal with the small number of people who cannot care for themselves, but the vast majority of people can be self sufficient, and having their personal car makes them more self sufficient.

Re:Amtrak Could Turn a Profit for the First Time by shkkmo on Friday November 22, 2019 @02:46PM (#21609294)
> Government needs to deal with the small number of people who cannot care for themselves, but the vast majority of people can be self sufficient, and having their personal car makes them more self sufficient.

More 25% is not a small number. A car only helps if people can actually get out. A mass evacuation by car of LA, San Francisco, Seattle or NY would fail utterly. Any place that already has significant traffic issues during rush hour (the sorts of places where buses are needed) would face massive drops in the evacuation rate due to gridlock and the areas that they would be evacuating through would rapidly run out of supplies (as happened with Fort McMurray with only 88k people being evacuated).

Re:Amtrak Could Turn a Profit for the First Time by jeromegv on Monday November 18, 2019 @10:25AM (#21564971)
What are you suggesting exactly? I don't quite grasp your point

We shouldn't use bus when they are available for evacuation? Why? If we can get all the bus to be used + add bus from other cities nearby, why should we prevent people from using them? This is scaling much better and people with cars are free to leave with their own cars.

"Cars have the advantage of there are enough of them." --Surely not the case in many urban cities.

Re:Amtrak Could Turn a Profit for the First Time by bluGill on Monday November 18, 2019 @02:28PM (#21567335)
I'm suggesting that all the buses in the city, are not enough to make a significant dent in the evacuation needs. This would be the case even if all transit in the city was by bus (no train/subway, and no private cars - obviously this is unrealistic).
Re:Amtrak Could Turn a Profit for the First Time by burfog on Tuesday November 19, 2019 @02:29PM (#21577169)
Buses also don't work. Disasters are disastrous.

New Orleans had huge numbers of school buses. They went unused and were destroyed by flooding.

You might demand that the government not be incompetent, but the reality is that government will screw up badly. Individuals with cars can screw up, but the effects are limited to the people screwing up.

Re:Amtrak Could Turn a Profit for the First Time by sandworm101 on Monday November 18, 2019 @10:52AM (#21565240)
Who said anything about "full city"? Most /= all.
Re:Amtrak Could Turn a Profit for the First Time by jschwartzi on Monday November 18, 2019 @11:21AM (#21565482)
The disaster planning argument is a huge red herring. I've yet to see my home city evacuated like you're saying for any reason. Whereas I've spent the last 17 years driving around everywhere for lack of any other options. So it seems to me like disaster planning is something we would have time to think about even if my city replaced all of our cars with trains and buses. So it just doesn't seem very important.