But you don't actually need to know the internals in order to know how long it will hold up.
You can black box update your probability of fiat currency holding up every month that fiat currency doesn't crash (let's define it as "lose 50% of its value"). In fact, by this metric it's pretty clear that fiat currency probability of holding up is much better then that of most (and all major) cryptos.
If anything, a lot of what ML/data science/quantitative finance has shown us is that hand constructed explanations made by experts typically have bad predictive power and statistical estimates typically have ok predictive power. For things related to money I would trust data over any expert mechanistic explanation.
No one can know with certainty whether a given object or situation is going to hold up. Life isn't guaranteed.
Sure, you can tell yourself "X has worked so-far, that makes it continuing to work quite likely". But X is "driving your car without adding gas or oil", that it worked for a while hardly makes it more likely.
And, of course, you can't claim predictive power for a sequence of individual experiences. And if you apply regression to a Ponzi scheme, it will seem like a great idea.
I make no mention of it and I am simply replying to "black box is a fine way to understand things" arguments. My point, my only point, a point removed from crypto entirely, is that one need specifics and not mere trends, to understand anything.
And how exactly does Bitcoin help to answer that question?
Just looking at roller coaster ride that is the Bitcoin to USD exchange rate suggests it is an extremely volatile currency.
I would suggest that the last thing you would want in a currency system is extreme volatility.
If anything, I would say that an understanding of money would show that it's based on a web of trust and so bitcoin indeed solves no problem of money as such and is effectively some combination of Ponzi scheme, money laundering scheme and ideology.
If literally all you know about money is that it is a token that lets you buy stuff at the grocery store, here is trwhat you don't know - how long is that situation going to hold up.
> "Just as I wouldn't tailor my own paragliding chute, because otherwise companies could rip me off."
I wouldn't try to sew a normal parachute let alone a paragliding chute. But one thing I know about safety-critical pieces of nylon or related things is that wear and tear is visible. A moderate rip, hole, tear in material, an engine that coughs, a tire that's deformed, all this stuff is a clue that there are problems ahead.
What signs tell you when there's problem in the relationship between your tokens and the grocery store? That's where a bit more understanding of money is useful. And, as the OP say, that understanding is difficult, actually (edit: tbh, that's literally the only worthwhile point in an otherwise terrible article).