Re:Time Series Prediction – A short introduction for pragmat...
by chroem- on Saturday November 09, 2019 @12:44PM
(#21492890)
Basis function regression is a very under-appreciated method for producing time series forecasts. I've found that it beats most of the methods described in this article. Maybe I should make a blog post...
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Re:Time Series Prediction – A short introduction for pragmat...
by starpilot on Saturday November 09, 2019 @09:30PM
(#21496033)
Works if you have enough domain knowledge to prescribe the functions (priors). Not so good if it's a poorly understood or niche domain.
Re:Time Series Prediction – A short introduction for pragmat...
by amrrs on Saturday November 09, 2019 @12:49PM
(#21492927)
Sorry for ignorance. Did you mean to say Simple Linear regression or something else? Do you have any reference for that?
Re:Time Series Prediction – A short introduction for pragmat...
by semi-extrinsic on Saturday November 09, 2019 @01:16PM
(#21493158)
Not OP, but as an example, imagine you want to fit the time series of measured monthly CO2 at Mauna Loa:
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
Just by looking at the graph, you can see that fitting a linear combination of a constant term, t, t2 and sin(w*t) will give you a very accurate model that has five tuning parameters (four weights and one frequency).
Re:Time Series Prediction – A short introduction for pragmat...
by chroem- on Saturday November 09, 2019 @12:58PM
(#21493001)
Yes, it's an extension of linear regression. You can incorporate different basis functions to model trend, seasonality, the effects of external regressors, different frequency components, etc. It gives you a lot more control over the forecast model.
Re:Time Series Prediction – A short introduction for pragmat...
by riyadparvez on Saturday November 09, 2019 @01:11PM
(#21493118)
Are you referring to Generalized Additive Models (GAM)?
Re:Time Series Prediction – A short introduction for pragmat...
by semi-extrinsic on Saturday November 09, 2019 @01:19PM
(#21493188)
I think GAMs are more for the case where you have many underlying input variables and a single resulting response.
Re:Time Series Prediction – A short introduction for pragmat...
by XuMiao on Saturday November 09, 2019 @03:04PM
(#21493943)
This is a less studied senario for time series research: contextual forecasting. With enough contextual information, forecasting doesn't need to squeeze the information from its own history that hard.
Re:Time Series Prediction – A short introduction for pragmat...
by tgv on Saturday November 09, 2019 @02:31PM
(#21493720)
Here's an explanation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVviNyIR-fI
It's basically fitting on non-linear transformations of x.