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Re:Time Series Prediction – A short introduction for pragmat... by chroem- on Saturday November 09, 2019 @12:44PM (#21492890)
Basis function regression is a very under-appreciated method for producing time series forecasts. I've found that it beats most of the methods described in this article. Maybe I should make a blog post...
Re:Time Series Prediction – A short introduction for pragmat... by starpilot on Saturday November 09, 2019 @09:30PM (#21496033)
Works if you have enough domain knowledge to prescribe the functions (priors). Not so good if it's a poorly understood or niche domain.
Re:Time Series Prediction – A short introduction for pragmat... by amrrs on Saturday November 09, 2019 @12:49PM (#21492927)
Sorry for ignorance. Did you mean to say Simple Linear regression or something else? Do you have any reference for that?
Re:Time Series Prediction – A short introduction for pragmat... by semi-extrinsic on Saturday November 09, 2019 @01:16PM (#21493158)
Not OP, but as an example, imagine you want to fit the time series of measured monthly CO2 at Mauna Loa:

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

Just by looking at the graph, you can see that fitting a linear combination of a constant term, t, t2 and sin(w*t) will give you a very accurate model that has five tuning parameters (four weights and one frequency).

Re:Time Series Prediction – A short introduction for pragmat... by chroem- on Saturday November 09, 2019 @12:58PM (#21493001)
Yes, it's an extension of linear regression. You can incorporate different basis functions to model trend, seasonality, the effects of external regressors, different frequency components, etc. It gives you a lot more control over the forecast model.
Re:Time Series Prediction – A short introduction for pragmat... by riyadparvez on Saturday November 09, 2019 @01:11PM (#21493118)
Are you referring to Generalized Additive Models (GAM)?
Re:Time Series Prediction – A short introduction for pragmat... by semi-extrinsic on Saturday November 09, 2019 @01:19PM (#21493188)
I think GAMs are more for the case where you have many underlying input variables and a single resulting response.
Re:Time Series Prediction – A short introduction for pragmat... by XuMiao on Saturday November 09, 2019 @03:04PM (#21493943)
This is a less studied senario for time series research: contextual forecasting. With enough contextual information, forecasting doesn't need to squeeze the information from its own history that hard.
Re:Time Series Prediction – A short introduction for pragmat... by tgv on Saturday November 09, 2019 @02:31PM (#21493720)
Here's an explanation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVviNyIR-fI

It's basically fitting on non-linear transformations of x.

Re:Time Series Prediction – A short introduction for pragmat... by clircle on Sunday November 10, 2019 @06:07PM (#21500779)
You can fit a basis function regression model with least squares.