Uber's self-driving car fatality rate: 1 death per 2 million miles[2]
That is, Uber's state-of-the-art is an order of magnitude worse than human drivers.
I know, you'll complain about small sample size. The thing is, assuming Uber's cars match humans, the chances of a collision happening only after 2 million miles are very small, like pulling an ace of spades out of a shuffled deck of cards.
The point is, we do have the data, and the data does not support optimistic beliefs.
Sure!
Traffic fatalities in the US, human drivers: 1.25 deaths per 100 million vehicle miles [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transportation_safety_in_the_U...
Uber's self-driving car fatality rate: 1 death per 2 million miles[2]
That is, Uber's state-of-the-art is an order of magnitude worse than human drivers.
I know, you'll complain about small sample size. The thing is, assuming Uber's cars match humans, the chances of a collision happening only after 2 million miles are very small, like pulling an ace of spades out of a shuffled deck of cards.
The point is, we do have the data, and the data does not support optimistic beliefs.
[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transportation_safety_in_the_U...
[2]https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/10/waymo-has-driven-10-mil...