I'm not really sure what your point is. That we don't have to worry about global warming because countries are going to work together to stop it? I wish I had your optimism.
> In my time, the hockey-stick would be an indication there is something wrong with the model ( instability ). "Nature does not behave this way"
But the popularly known "hockey stick" graph isn't a model prediction, it's a reconstruction of past and current temperatures. "Nature is currently behaving this way"... And as you point out, that's an indication that there's something wrong -- instability.
In technical discussions on HN, people are allowed to bring up contrarian opinions and ideas.
In highly-politicized issues, people tend to line up on sides, and downvote accordingly.
There are legitimate scientists who think climate is a potentially serious problem, like many others, but neither a crisis nor an emergency. It's hard for them to get heard.
For example, the Pacific Islands will face rising tides along their whole coastline, while simultaneously facing extreme weather events and agricultural disruption. What's your solution for an entire country of people simultaneously trying to immigrate elsewhere?
"Since 1994, the islanders of the seven atolls, lying only 1.2 metres above sea level, have already lost about 50 per cent of their land. Traditional food sources have become scarce, regularly placing the islanders in situations of near famine. The communities also face severe water shortages due to prolonged droughts and sea-level rises that affect their freshwater supply." [2]
[1] https://www.newscientist.com/article/2146594-eight-low-lying...
[2] https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019-06-11/understanding-...
But how is this "many people will die"? Have people already died? Are they dying by the 100ths? Or the thousands?
I guess not. And they will migrate away.
I have lived through :
- The end of the cold war, we were all going to die a horrible death, all at once.
- Acid rain, all forests would die and consequently we would die too or have a terrible planet
- The hole in the ozone layer, we would all get skin cancer ( I can't remember if we would die )
- Tchernobyl with elevated radiation stretching into Europe. Could not eat apricot-jam and damn I love apricot-jam
Furthermore, I have studied Computer Science, which was basically 50% math. I have worked with people developing physical models, advanced computing and simulations are freaking hard.
In my time, the hockey-stick would be an indication there is something wrong with the model ( instability ). "Nature does not behave this way"
The earth is getting greener and yields are up, partly because of increased CO2 in the atmosphere.
It is completely unclear if "climate change" is either good or bad.
The sea level has been rising for thousands and thousand of years : about 6-8k years ago, I would be able to walk to the UK ( from NL ).