Re:Buffett's bet: Hedge funds can't beat the market
by notauser on Monday June 09, 2008 @05:34PM
(#213246)
The assessment of fund management suffers from the usual problem - there are bound to be some people who really are just that lucky.
For simplicity if you look at just the last two years and four fund managers, statistically one of them will have won in both years. He will rationalise this away (his 'system') and claim to be a good manager of money.
There are enough funds that quite a few of them are certain to have won in 9 of the last 10 years, further reinforced by the fact that losing funds tend to close.
Because of this effect I would say that past performance is a horrible predictor of future performance. Certainly I am happy to put my money where my mouth is - with the exception of sensible diversification (cash and bonds) my savings are all in low fee index funds.
Re:Buffett's bet: Hedge funds can't beat the market
by DTrejo on Monday June 09, 2008 @10:25PM
(#213450)
I see you have read The Black Swan. I learned a lot too when I read it. And it is an especially must-read for those getting into trading and fund management.
For simplicity if you look at just the last two years and four fund managers, statistically one of them will have won in both years. He will rationalise this away (his 'system') and claim to be a good manager of money.
There are enough funds that quite a few of them are certain to have won in 9 of the last 10 years, further reinforced by the fact that losing funds tend to close.
Because of this effect I would say that past performance is a horrible predictor of future performance. Certainly I am happy to put my money where my mouth is - with the exception of sensible diversification (cash and bonds) my savings are all in low fee index funds.