Re:Adam Neumann planned for his children and grandchildren t...
by skinnymuch on Saturday October 19, 2019 @09:04AM
(#21298254)
Most tech growth companies have doubled or more since 2014. So Amazon being at $150B market cap back then probably still means they’d be around $300B+ today without AWS. I’d peg it at $350-375B minimum right now. Amazon’s mostly positive and beloved image to consumers (I know places like HN feel differently) would have still helped Amazon without AWS. In 2018, their operating income for North America was $7B+. International loss was $2B+. So they still did $5B in operating income. AWS adds in another $7B+ of course which is huge.
I’m not saying AWS is worth Amazon’s current market cap minus $375B. Could have both segments being valued less by the market as one combined company. It’s just I have a hard time seeing Amazon worth around $150B in late 2014, which def includes some of AWS pre-publicly being reported in earnings, not being worth around triple that amt now with the way stocks have gone. Assuming AWS was valued at $20 in 2014.
For the growth, their retail growth has slowed. Under 20% a year now. But their growth in subscription (Prime mostly) and advertising are still growing at above 1/3. Like AWS. So the company wouldn’t have nothing for the stock to be speculatively high on without AWS.
I’m not saying AWS is worth Amazon’s current market cap minus $375B. Could have both segments being valued less by the market as one combined company. It’s just I have a hard time seeing Amazon worth around $150B in late 2014, which def includes some of AWS pre-publicly being reported in earnings, not being worth around triple that amt now with the way stocks have gone. Assuming AWS was valued at $20 in 2014.
For the growth, their retail growth has slowed. Under 20% a year now. But their growth in subscription (Prime mostly) and advertising are still growing at above 1/3. Like AWS. So the company wouldn’t have nothing for the stock to be speculatively high on without AWS.