Re:Uber lays off around 350 more across Eats, self-driving a...
by onlyrealcuzzo on Monday October 14, 2019 @02:05PM
(#21251047)
Arm-chair speculating here...
I think as long as the VC investment keeps growing the layoffs won't matter much.
If the layoffs continue and VC investments steadies or declines, I don't think it takes many months until there's suddenly more supply than demand, and companies start being more selective about who they hire, and offered salaries stop increasing (and maybe even decline).
Think about it. Uber is the biggest IPO by far. They're laying off only 1000 people. Even if they're all in The Bay, and even if all the other recent IPOs go through similar (but proportional) layoffs -- you're talking about maybe 5000 layoffs max. That's a lot.
Bay Area investment in 2018 was $27.5B [1]. Nationally, since 2007 (and I pick that since it's the last peak), VC investment has increased by 11.13% per year.
If the Bay Area gets an extra ~$3B next year in VC money, that could absorb the 5000 layoffs pretty easily.
Obviously there could be any other exogenous shock that causes even more layoffs. Obviously VC investment could fall off a cliff. Obviously I can't predict the future.
I think as long as the VC investment keeps growing the layoffs won't matter much.
If the layoffs continue and VC investments steadies or declines, I don't think it takes many months until there's suddenly more supply than demand, and companies start being more selective about who they hire, and offered salaries stop increasing (and maybe even decline).
Think about it. Uber is the biggest IPO by far. They're laying off only 1000 people. Even if they're all in The Bay, and even if all the other recent IPOs go through similar (but proportional) layoffs -- you're talking about maybe 5000 layoffs max. That's a lot.
Bay Area investment in 2018 was $27.5B [1]. Nationally, since 2007 (and I pick that since it's the last peak), VC investment has increased by 11.13% per year.
If the Bay Area gets an extra ~$3B next year in VC money, that could absorb the 5000 layoffs pretty easily.
Obviously there could be any other exogenous shock that causes even more layoffs. Obviously VC investment could fall off a cliff. Obviously I can't predict the future.
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-08/ventur...