Re:Experts who say we shouldn't worry about superintelligent...
by XorNot on Tuesday October 08, 2019 @08:40PM
(#21198802)
Well no, technically it's just the point of maximum change, where our existing model would trend towards infinity. In much the same way as this is a meaningless result in physics for a black hole (and hence a lot of new theory to try and bound that infinity) it's a meaningless prediction for the future as well.
But it is very much reasonable to posit that certain, seemingly achievable advances, do imply that predictive models of the future become meaningless beyond them.
In some areas I would contend we're circling that right now: I don't think anyone has a good model for what society looks like if deep fakes become accessible to the point of ubiquity for example (think: whole performance replacement in movies with moderate investments in computing power) or the like. We don't have a predictive model, really, for how society operates when "perfect" fakes are possible.
But it is very much reasonable to posit that certain, seemingly achievable advances, do imply that predictive models of the future become meaningless beyond them.
In some areas I would contend we're circling that right now: I don't think anyone has a good model for what society looks like if deep fakes become accessible to the point of ubiquity for example (think: whole performance replacement in movies with moderate investments in computing power) or the like. We don't have a predictive model, really, for how society operates when "perfect" fakes are possible.