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A comment on Cory Doctorow: Our dangerous statistical ignorance. Parent comment
25% chance, 4 cycles: 68.4% chance of one or more successes. 33.3% chance, 4 cycles: 80.2% chance at least one is a winner.
33.3% chance, 10 cycles (your entire career): 98.3%. Though it would be pretty hard to keep at it at 58, after 9 failures.
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25% chance, 4 cycles: 68.4% chance of one or more successes. 33.3% chance, 4 cycles: 80.2% chance at least one is a winner.
33.3% chance, 10 cycles (your entire career): 98.3%. Though it would be pretty hard to keep at it at 58, after 9 failures.