Re:Battle to wipe out debilitating Guinea worm parasite hits...
by gibba999 on Saturday October 05, 2019 @08:44AM
(#21165193)
... only it doesn't work.
Those models work very well on a short-term timescale. We have major upheavals every few hundred years. At that point, the fiat money in the bank account disappears. Once eradicated, the worm doesn't come back.
Re:Battle to wipe out debilitating Guinea worm parasite hits...
by sbierwagen on Saturday October 05, 2019 @11:50AM
(#21166174)
You seem distracted by the use of the word “dollars”. No need to be so literal, they’re just using them as an abstract unit of value. It can be replaced with milligrams of gold or Satoshis without loss of meaning.
It's really not that arbitrary. There are many ways of valuing this, sure. Here's a fairly straightforward one:
Say it costs you A per year to maintain current levels, and the yearly cost of capital to eradicate is X amount of capital * y% yearly cost per year (e.g. if you borrow X at y% interest, or if you have X but sacrifice y% returns by spending the money instead of investing it), and the lowest viable cost to save at least as many lives as the infection currently claims is B, then it's a question of whether A+B or X*y% is lower. Whichever is lower will allow you to divert more funds to other targets, and so save more lives (or do something else). Of course there are risks here, in that any of the variables can change, so if they're close it may be worth it to eradicate simply to eliminate the risks that the alternatives get more expensive going forwards.
But this is not a very hard thing to model. The reason we don't do that more often is that often there are many other factors involved, such as politics and emotions and who fights hardest to get funded.