The money will run out before that is feasible.

As much as I believe self-driving cars will be a thing, that kind of technology takes years to develop and is hard to predict when it will be ready.

Making a big bet that self-driving cars will work by a specific date is gambling.

With driverless cars (if it happens) they're suddenly in the business of massive capex.

Yeah because that technology is right around the corner...

I guess Hacker News is now just filled with people who think they are smarter than large companies.

How likely is that to happen inside a timespan long enough for Uber to survive?

Likely enough for Uber to bet on it. The whole idea behind the company was bet that once they capture the majority of market via aggressive expansion, the self driving auto will hit the market allowing them to cut out people from the business.

Seems like they underestimated and going to crash (or they pivot and change the model to actually include human drivers as part of the business).