The only way I can see Google exercising any leverage here is by using the nuclear option and requiring WebM to view YouTube (via <video> or a newer version of Flash). YouTube is enough of a draw that WebM support would become more or less universal, via Flash upgrades and (presumably) native support on Android.

At which point, Apple would find itself pretty lonely on the H264 ice-flow.

Of course, every single mobile device currently in existence would become collateral damage, since WebM hardware acceleration support doesn't exist yet. (And hey, who knows how successful, cheap, or easy it will end up being.)

Seems kind of crazy to me, though, just like most of the "we've got to restrict your freedom to save your freedom" arguments (e.g., the recent GPL takedown of VLC from the App Store).

But I'm a pragmatist and tend the believe the future plays out in shades of grey rather than black-and-white, and am to be suspicious of causing certain harm now to increase the odds of avoiding some Dystopian future (and it's not like patents last forever!).