How we will know when a recession is coming?

Re:How we will know when a recession is coming? by gzu on Wednesday September 11, 2019 @04:54PM (#20944590)

Why does it have to be just a recession with rebound a few years later? I’d argue many are thinking too positive following 2008 where everything will go back to normal and prices will rally to all time highs. The US economy almost blew up into a full blown depression in 2008. The Fed swooped in to save the day. Can the Fed do that again indefinitely with not only US but potential problems worldwide?

The global economy is reaching uncharted territory now with the amount of debt and negative interest rates.

Maybe a depression like 1930’s are a relic of the past once we decoupled from the gold standard. Central banks today have full power to devalue currency indefinitely in order to maintain the financial status quo.

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Re:How we will know when a recession is coming? by dragonwriter on Wednesday September 11, 2019 @06:33PM (#20945538)

> Can the Fed do that again

They've probably got more tools, as they've said that the foreign experience puts negative interest rates on the table as a realistic tool.

But, even if they can't, Congress could, in principal, step in with serious fiscal stimulus [0], which is less limited than the monetary tools available to the Fed. But they've been unreliable in the last few recessions, leaving the Fed holding the bag.

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Re:How we will know when a recession is coming? by jethro_tell on Wednesday September 11, 2019 @05:22PM (#20944850)

> Can the Fed do that again ...?

I mean they don't have much to give do they? Unless we're doing negative interest rates this time.

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Re:How we will know when a recession is coming? by ChaseT on Wednesday September 11, 2019 @05:51PM (#20945133)

Japan did negative interest rates in 2016. https://www.npr.org/templates/transcript/transcript.php?stor...

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Re:How we will know when a recession is coming? by kasey_junk on Wednesday September 11, 2019 @05:29PM (#20944943)

The president asked for negative interest rates this morning.

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