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Re:In effect, Seattle is decriminalizing the use of hard drugs by hash872 on Friday August 23, 2019 @03:33PM (#20781665)
His argument has been widely debunked, and subsequent followup found that Leavitt had a huge data error that way overstated his conclusion.

I personally find the lead/crime argument to be much more convincing

Re:In effect, Seattle is decriminalizing the use of hard drugs by loeg on Friday August 23, 2019 @05:12PM (#20782637)
"Widely debunked" is factually inaccurate. It has not been debunked at all. It is not popular and leads to a lot of emotional responses, and there was one particular mechnical error in a single table in the original paper (Foote and Goetz); it has been addressed by the authors and did not materially affect the basic analysis or high-level conclusion.

An independent study on the lead/crime hypothesis (impact of childhood lead exposure on criminality) came to a similar conclusion.[0] (Reyes is interviewed in the podcast linked below.) Finally, they recently published a 15-years on follow-up study, which showed continued support for the hypothesis.[1]

You can read a transcript of their most recent podcast on the subject here[2], or just go direct to the source material.

[0]: https://www.biologicaldiversity.org/campaigns/get_the_lead_o...

[1]: https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/BFI_WP_201975.pd...

[2]: http://freakonomics.com/podcast/abortion/

Re:In effect, Seattle is decriminalizing the use of hard drugs by rayiner on Friday August 23, 2019 @03:42PM (#20781773)
“Widely debunked” is too strong. They’ve released a new study where they double down on that conclusion: https://journalistsresource.org/studies/economics/abortion-c...
Re:In effect, Seattle is decriminalizing the use of hard drugs by kenoyer130 on Friday August 23, 2019 @03:45PM (#20781815)
It is a good chapter to read to see their methodology even if you don't agree with the results. For example, comparing stricter/easier gun laws and prison times in different cities and not finding a correlation to the drop in violence since it was across the board.
Re:In effect, Seattle is decriminalizing the use of hard drugs by hash872 on Friday August 23, 2019 @04:50PM (#20782425)
Oh I've read it and am familiar with their argument, I just disagree. I don't think analyzing gun laws on a city by city basis makes a lot of sense, they're small, in high demand apparently, and easily smuggled from a more permissive locale.

The abortion argument is just a pathway to IQ/some people are genetically more predisposed to being dumb & violent, etc. It's just a step on the way there. I hardly think I have to spell out what's the next step on the road after that. Open white supremacists like Steve Sailer vocally support the abortion argument, for instance

Re:In effect, Seattle is decriminalizing the use of hard drugs by ClumsyPilot on Friday August 23, 2019 @05:11PM (#20782617)
" a pathway to IQ/some people are genetically " How did you come ot that conclusion? Much simpler option is on the table: parents mostly abort kkids when they know they don;t want them or can;t take care of them. Kids that are wanted, are much more likely to be properly brought up and not become criminals.
Re:In effect, Seattle is decriminalizing the use of hard drugs by thaumasiotes on Friday August 23, 2019 @09:53PM (#20784656)
> Kids that are wanted, are much more likely to be properly brought up and not become criminals.

Adopted children (in the US) are much more prone to various failures, like becoming criminals, than are the biological children of their adoptive parents.

It seems unlikely that this is due to the adopted children being unwanted.

Re:In effect, Seattle is decriminalizing the use of hard drugs by massaman_yams on Friday August 23, 2019 @06:47PM (#20783490)
Only if you're biased towards accepting those kinds of arguments already. There are social explanations for the effect that, in my opinion, both better explain it and don't suffer from the slightest appearance of racism.
Re:In effect, Seattle is decriminalizing the use of hard drugs by yesenadam on Friday August 23, 2019 @06:38PM (#20783409)
An argument (in this sense) is a particular way of arriving at a conclusion. There could be different arguments for the same conclusion. This Freakonomics abortion thing seems to me an explanation. The 'conclusion' here is the reality of lower-than-expected crime rates - you don't argue for that; you try to explain it.

Your second paragraph is the most naked slippery-slope appeal to fear I've seen. Just repeating "just a pathway", "just a step" doesn't make it so. If the explanation is true, it's true. That some racist believes something or not doesn't affect its truth or falsity. I get a kind of claustrophobic communist-era vibe from your comment - that there is no truth, no reality, outside what the powers-that-be declare to be true. (I guess we call it 'political correctness' - there's no 'correct', only 'politically correct'.)

Re:In effect, Seattle is decriminalizing the use of hard drugs by loeg on Friday August 23, 2019 @06:40PM (#20783432)
> Oh I've read it and am familiar with their argument

You do not seem to be familiar with the their conclusions and sentiments, no.

> The abortion argument is just a pathway to IQ/some people are genetically more predisposed to being dumb & violent, etc. It's just a step on the way there. I hardly think I have to spell out what's the next step on the road after that. Open white supremacists like Steve Sailer vocally support the abortion argument, for instance

Not even close.

> LEVITT: I actually think that our paper makes really clear why this has nothing to do with eugenics. ... what our data suggests is that women are pretty good at choosing when they can bring kids in the world, who they can provide good environments for, okay? The mechanism by which any effects on crime have to be happening here are the women making good choices. And that’s such a fundamental difference — between women making good choices and eugenics, which is about the state, say, or some other entity forcing choices upon people, almost couldn’t be more different.

> ...

> What did Donohue mean by “unwantedness”? He was referring to the expansive social-sciences literature which showed that children born to parents who didn’t truly want that child, or weren’t ready for that child, these children were more likely to have worse outcomes as they grew up — health and education outcomes. But also, these so-called “unwanted” kids would ultimately be more likely to engage in criminal behaviors.

> ...

> The mechanism was pretty simple: unwanted children were more likely than average to engage in crime as they got older; but an unwanted child who was never born would never have the opportunity to enter his criminal prime, 15 or 20 years later. Donohue and Levitt created a tidy syllogism: unwantedness leads to high crime; legalized abortion led to less unwantedness; therefore, abortion led to lower crime.

> DONOHUE: ... presumably the greatest thing that could happen in this domain is if you would eliminate unwanted pregnancies in the first place. But American policy has not been nearly as effective in achieving that goal.

> A country like the Netherlands, which has really tried to reduce unwanted pregnancies, has probably had the right approach in dealing with the issues that our research at least raised. So they have much, much lower rates of abortion even though abortion is completely legal in the Netherlands. But they want to stop the unwanted pregnancies on the front end, and I think almost everyone should be able to agree that that is the preferable way to focus policy if one can.

> ...

> LEVITT: On the other hand, I don’t think anyone who is sensible should use our hypothesis to change their mind about how they feel about legalized abortion. So it really isn’t very [abortion] policy-relevant. If you’re pro-life and you believe that the fetus is equivalent in moral value to a person, well then, the tradeoff is awful.

> ...

> LEVITT: So there are two policy domains for which this research is important. ... the second [policy domain] really does relate to the idea that if unwantedness is such a powerful influencer on people’s lives, then we should try to do things to make sure that children are wanted. You could at least begin to think about how you would create a world in which kids grow up more loved and more appreciated and with brighter futures. And you know, is that better early education? Is that, you know, permits for parents? Or training for parents? Or, you know, minimum incomes? Who knows what the answer really would be. But there’s a whole set of topics I think which are not even on the table.

Re:In effect, Seattle is decriminalizing the use of hard drugs by hash872 on Friday August 23, 2019 @07:12PM (#20783687)
I just skimmed the chapter again to refresh my memory. It has a clear 'THOSE people [lower income, lower IQ] having abortions reduced the crime rate' angle. I'm sure they may have said something different after the fact, to not appear pro-eugenics (they likely didn't know how popular their book would be when they were writing it!). I invite anyone who disagrees to simply read the source material themselves.

Anyways, seeing as not only do social scientists widely disagree with their hypothesis, but other researchers found flaws in their data sets that Leavitt & Donohue were forced to acknowledge & correct for- it seems irrelevant?

Re:In effect, Seattle is decriminalizing the use of hard drugs by rdtwo on Friday August 23, 2019 @03:38PM (#20781733)
What’s the lead/crime argument?
Re:In effect, Seattle is decriminalizing the use of hard drugs by dnissley on Friday August 23, 2019 @03:54PM (#20781906)