I wouldn't get caught up in predicting the market long term. Do you plan to be in your home for a good period of time, long enough to build equity? Is the (mortgage + HOA + insurance + property tax) going to be 1/4 or less of your take home pay? Do you foresee yourself having a stable income into the future?

If the answers are yes your probably in good shape. However, a lot of folks rationalize their way around the second condition; dragons be there.