You make it sound like supply chains are permanent, immutable things that can't be created and dismantled at will. It happens all the time.

Yes, there are countries where an existing supply chain is an advantage. But those supply chains weren't always there. They were created when manufacturing demand arrived. The same thing can happen in the United States, Canada, Europe, Brazil, or pretty much any other company.

It's happened before. It'll happen again.

If I was looking for a country to for long-term manufacturing strategies right now, I'd be taking a hard look at African countries.

Agreed. I read/heard somewhere the notion that Africa is tired of making plastic shoes for China, and wants to start moving toward electronics. Considering the labor availability, sea access, and mineral wealth available, I could see that happening.

Respect for property rights and political stability is definitely a downside, though. The first industrialists that manage to build out after the last land war or socio-political upheaval are going to get some really nice returns, though.

Smart investors realize China/India's future economic status depends on being able to offset loss of western demand/trade with direct trade with African markets.

This is generally better for the whole planet but not if you have a "zero-sum game" mentality (seems more common in the West than East).

- South Africa is the richest/most advanced on most metrics, but it's also wracked by crime and labor unrest, and set for continuing major political unrest.

- Nigeria is huge and growing, but corrupt to the point of making legitimate business near-impossible.

- Ethiopia is run by a Communist junta whose commitment to reform is questionable at best.

- Rwanda likes to think they're the next Singapore, but they're tiny, landlocked and in a really bad neighborhood.