Yeah I've seen that too, and that's at least one point in my reasoning as well. I am not really sure what factors Zillow is specifically using to predict that, though.

I'm looking to buy a 2br condo somewhere between San Mateo and Santa Clara (inclusive) which should probably be hit the hardest, however even 10% seems not enough - not from an affordability standpoint, but from a value standpoint, I think even with some appreciation it would be better to keep renting. And there must be a limit to how much 1-2 br condo in the area can appreciate, since I assume it will probably always be pegged to at most somewhere around what a local software engineer salary with ~3-10 years of experience could pay for a mortgage. And they are already right around that level.

The bay area is already in a downturn per california association of realtor data. La/oc/ie is mostly flat. Rural california is a mixed bag.

Interesting, have a link to the Zillow prediction?

If you look up a random house on Zillow[0] and scroll to the bottom on the right in the "Neighborhood" section, it will tell you about how much it's gone up/down in the last year and their prediction for next year. I've looked at a lot of houses and the 10% is sort of my mental average of what I've seen around the Bay Area. That house for example has a 13% down predation, but each "Neighborhood" is different.

[0] https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5441-Kaveny-Dr-San-Jose-C...

This is what I could find, but doesn't corroborate the prediction mentioned above https://www.zillow.com/san-francisco-ca/home-values/

You have to average out all the different areas of the Bay Area. For example check out San Jose: https://www.zillow.com/san-jose-ca/home-values/