Re:House Prices Drop Again in San Francisco and Silicon Valley
by rolltiide on Saturday August 17, 2019 @01:20AM
(#20722253)
> risky
It just depends on the debt to collateral ratio
25% could be good enough, but when they do 50% or overleverage then you should worry
The bay area would definitely be hit hard temporarily if tech, housing and lending slowed as some real estate companies take on greater risk than others, like offering no money down if you work at a FAANG with a lien on your shares.
But if there isnt much leverage then asset prices themselves dont magically become a problem just because the upward trajectory lasted a while
1999 and 2008 were leverage problems, with 2008 exacerbated by the surprise implosion of a large bank - Lehman - a few days after getting the highest credit rating, this simultaneously froze all lending since the confidence system failed. Morgan Stanley was leverage 40x the assets they had. So regulations since then ensure certain capital ratios: deleverage. As long as people find wealth and buy with that found wealth, bull market continues. If people buy with the future prospects of finding wealth, and that fails, bull market fails. Less future betting, continued steady bull market.
It just depends on the debt to collateral ratio
25% could be good enough, but when they do 50% or overleverage then you should worry
The bay area would definitely be hit hard temporarily if tech, housing and lending slowed as some real estate companies take on greater risk than others, like offering no money down if you work at a FAANG with a lien on your shares.
But if there isnt much leverage then asset prices themselves dont magically become a problem just because the upward trajectory lasted a while
1999 and 2008 were leverage problems, with 2008 exacerbated by the surprise implosion of a large bank - Lehman - a few days after getting the highest credit rating, this simultaneously froze all lending since the confidence system failed. Morgan Stanley was leverage 40x the assets they had. So regulations since then ensure certain capital ratios: deleverage. As long as people find wealth and buy with that found wealth, bull market continues. If people buy with the future prospects of finding wealth, and that fails, bull market fails. Less future betting, continued steady bull market.