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Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by adventured on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @11:58AM (#20696863)
The Fed can replace / deal with China's treasury holdings relatively easily at this point, especially given the strength of the dollar. While $15t in global paper is yielding nothing or worse, the US is still yielding something and is still largely regarded as entirely safe by investors. China is no longer a threat to the treasury market re selling, even though more aggressive selling on their part would definitely cause some real short-term turmoil. They can rock the boat, they can't tip it over and the Fed would stabilize things quickly in reaction.

Over the next ten years the public US debt will hit $32 trillion give or take (possibly closer to $35t; I'm expecting a +$3.5t deficit in just two years in the next recession), about 1.2x to 1.3x GDP at that point. China's share of that $32-$35 trillion will be a mere 3% or lower. By the day their position becomes less meaningful (at this point the US Government is running up enough new public debt to equal China's treasury holdings every year, and that's before the recession blows out the deficit).

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by sremani on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @12:36PM (#20697213)
What exactly is wrong with this comment for the kind of downvotes?

At personal level, I find adventure one of the most level headed and dispassionate commentators esp. about Finance/Business/Geopolitics.

The whole China treasure holdings argument is at the best paper tiger. The argument is debunked by every respectable finance commentator.

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by ethbro on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @01:46PM (#20698001)
Curious question, because international government currency flows are still something that flumox me.

What are China's options if it sells US Treasuries? If it simply parks that money internally, what does that do?