Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K
by hn_throwaway_99 on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @11:04AM
(#20696284)
> I'd just like to point out that the yield curve inverted in 2018 [1] yet here we are.
As pointed out in the article you linked, what happened in late 2018 was a small section (3-5 year treasuries) inverted. When people talk about yield curve being a harbinger of recession, they're usually talking about the 2-10 year spread, which is what the parent post referred to.
You may argue "things are different this time", but you shouldn't be comparing apples to oranges.
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K
by govg on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @03:30PM
(#20699063)
It needn't be a "collapse", could be a protracted period of little to no growth, and most indications are that it will start in a couple of years at most.
As pointed out in the article you linked, what happened in late 2018 was a small section (3-5 year treasuries) inverted. When people talk about yield curve being a harbinger of recession, they're usually talking about the 2-10 year spread, which is what the parent post referred to.
You may argue "things are different this time", but you shouldn't be comparing apples to oranges.