Re:Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in...
by darkerside on Saturday August 10, 2019 @02:30PM
(#20663738)
Seems to me that an immature market that is on its way to becoming a commodity is a great time to invest, as opposed to post commoditization
Re:Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in...
by JamesBarney on Saturday August 10, 2019 @04:50PM
(#20664453)
Commoditization drives down profits which will limit the returns on your investment.
Generally you want to invest in complements to things that are going to be commoditized. The drop in price and profits for the commodity drive increased profits for the consumer of the commoditized good.
Re:Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in...
by philipkglass on Saturday August 10, 2019 @03:54PM
(#20664174)
Maybe. That could have described the solar photovoltaic manufacturing business in the first decade of the 21st century, but it would have been a real gamble making money trying to invest in any of the individual companies or even baskets of companies. Commoditization comes quickly, and with "too much" competition even proprietary advances benefit buyers more than manufacturers.
The fracking revolution looks similar, for that matter. So far it has delivered a lot more value to buyers of fossil fuels than to producers.
Re:Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in...
by maxerickson on Saturday August 10, 2019 @03:19PM
(#20663991)
They caveat their comment with "casual investors".
To win, you'll probably have to have a quite wide basket or get lucky and pick the right companies.
The lithium market seems crazy and susceptible to high volatility from Chinese stockpiles. Meanwhile, battery technologies, even at the high end, are becoming rapidly commoditized and experiencing price wars, meaning new investment even into state of the art battery tech probably isn’t exposed to a lot of upside because all the consumer markets it can feed into will have consumers expecting the highest quality at bargain basement prices.
The exceptions will likely be highly industry-specific and involve complex military or enterprise consumers with special needs, and I doubt casual investors will have access to information necessary to reliably speculate about those opportunities.