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Re:Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. T... by javert on Thursday August 08, 2019 @12:04AM (#20641752)
I think you are not making enough of a distinction between short-term trading based on technical factors and long-term value investing, which is what Warren Buffet did/does.
Re:Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. T... by SquishyPanda23 on Thursday August 08, 2019 @10:10PM (#20650775)
This is obliquely addressed. The methodology of value investing is well known by now. The goal is to buy underpriced stocks.

If you want to play that game you have to compete against large firms that have buildings full of people looking into the fundamentals of the companies. Or you need some other informational advantage.

Otherwise you are almost certainly buying correctly-valued stocks. That's not value investing, but you can do something else that is useful, like buy an index.

Re:Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. T... by javert on Friday August 09, 2019 @05:10PM (#20658278)
I don't believe that the stock market is efficient in the way you are suggesting.

For one thing, there are lots of companies I can buy into that Warren Buffet can't, because he can't take a meaningful (to him) position, because he would end up owning the entire company. And even that may not be enough to be meaningful to him.

I suspect this phenomenon also exists for firms and institutions much smaller than Buffet. It may not be that they would own the whole company, but simply that they would own too much of it and/or move the price on their own.

For another thing, lots of investors are irrational. They follow fads. There are certainly opportunities for contrarians.

Value stocks have underperformed in the last 12 yrs, but these things tend to follow cycles, so I'm guessing they will have a comeback. Here is an article about that: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-agony-of-hope-postponed-by-...

> you can do something else that is useful, like buy an index

That is precisely not useful in terms of efficient price discovery, though it may be "useful" to the individual investor who has better things to do with his or her time. That is one kind of behavior that causes inefficient markets that careful investors can then exploit.

Re:Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. T... by dmix on Thursday August 08, 2019 @01:19AM (#20642052)
> which is what Warren Buffet did/does.

It's what the vast majority of people and businesses do with their money. Only a small percentage are investing in risky trades. And the ones that do that have plenty of money to spare and are well aware of the risk models.

Re:Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. T... by orwin on Thursday August 08, 2019 @07:24AM (#20643468)
> It's what the vast majority of people and businesses do with their money.

The vast majority of people invest in founds that deals with short-term gambling. Heard of LTCM?

Re:Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. T... by javert on Thursday August 08, 2019 @03:36PM (#20647834)
> The vast majority of people invest in founds that deals with short-term gambling

I really doubt that.

Re:Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. T... by stouset on Thursday August 08, 2019 @04:33AM (#20642786)
If only that were true. Just look at RobinHood, for starters.
Re:Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. T... by dmix on Thursday August 08, 2019 @06:24AM (#20643216)
Just look at a rare unicorn in Silicon Valley that immediately drew SEC scrutiny?

What does that have to do with the average investor?

Re:Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. T... by Nasrudith on Thursday August 08, 2019 @08:38AM (#20643935)
I believe the investors were the ones to look at. The infamous /r/wallstreetbets in addition to self-deprecating jokes about themselves being basement dwellers essentially engage in outright gambling on shorter term swings and hunches to make and lose big - mostly the latter.