Re:Yield curve is blaring loudest recession warning since 2007
by VikingCoder on Monday August 05, 2019 @02:34PM
(#20616956)
This entire question is predicated on the firm belief that hens are about to drop in price.
This would be the best time to unload them, if you don't have a long hold philosophy.
Re:Yield curve is blaring loudest recession warning since 2007
by JoshTriplett on Monday August 05, 2019 @03:10PM
(#20617528)
The comment in question said "The price of hens has just dropped by 50%!". That's a bad time to sell.
If you can predict "the price of hens is about to drop" more reliably than the market can, that would make you exceptionally rare. And if you don't already know and have evidence that you can make such predictions reliably, the safe bet is that you can't. Many people try, and fail, and end up buying high and selling low.
Re:Yield curve is blaring loudest recession warning since 2007
by VikingCoder on Monday August 05, 2019 @06:27PM
(#20619809)
There are a plethora of investing choices, including not investing. Bitcoin, Gold, Bonds, etc. If someone is investing in HENS right now, it's not unreasonable to suggest they may want to change their strategy for the next couple of years.
Similarly, if someone is planning on planting SOY, I'd try to talk them out of it.
Would you seriously not try to talk someone out of planting soy?
Not at all. My goal with investing is "How do I get a good return on investment in the next X amount of time?", for various values of X that tend to be as long as reasonably possible.
> The farmer may do better to unload his hens, life off of cattle for a few years, and then move back to hens.
The comment you're responding to gave an example of hens dropping in price. That's the worst time to unload them. Trying to time the market is a great way to buy high and sell low.