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Re:China lets yuan break 7-per-dollar level for first time i... by seanmcdirmid on Monday August 05, 2019 @08:34AM (#20613600)
Capital flight happens when you think the yuan is going to lose more value, not when it has already lost value (too late). For example, I got most of my money out of RMB in 2016 when it hit 6.4 in one swoop, since I thought it would go 7 quickly (I was wrong, but there was no reason to not have USD anyways as a foreigner).

Chinese could also convert $50k a year for their own needs without having to justify it. (Foreigners could convert however much they made), so the controls were pretty reasonable at that time, not sure how it is now.

Re:China lets yuan break 7-per-dollar level for first time i... by JumpCrisscross on Monday August 05, 2019 @08:53AM (#20613750)
> Capital flight happens when you think the yuan is going to lose more value, not when it has already lost value

Rule of thumb in finance. When a system that looks stable assuming rational actors has a history of going haywire, the answer is usually leverage.

Devaluations spin out of control because of foreign-currency borrowing. Dollar debtors paid in yuan become forced sellers of assets and yuan amidst devaluation. (Their interest payments, in yuan, go up. Their revenues, in yuan, do not.) This panicked selling further devalues the currency, which leads to more panicked selling. This is a currency crisis.

When a government communicates FX boundaries, borrowers see a risk limit. They might hedge against currency moves up to that limit. Or keep enough dollars on hand (via cash or credit lines) to absorb pain up to that limit. Either way, when that limit is breached, they bleed. This feedback mechanism is commonly known, which turns breached limits into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Confidence is tricky.

Re:China lets yuan break 7-per-dollar level for first time i... by seanmcdirmid on Monday August 05, 2019 @08:59AM (#20613794)
China is a bit weird, they have the option of devaluing in a big chunk, eg that drop in 2016. These days the yuan is more market driven and efforts to manipulate it are indirect via dollar trading and interest rates. However, those bigs changes are lot more scarier than smaller movements with moments.

7 was considered a line in the sand that the government wouldn’t cross. Now that they crossed it, no one knows where the line in the sand is.

Re:China lets yuan break 7-per-dollar level for first time i... by whoevercares on Monday August 05, 2019 @08:49AM (#20613729)
The conversion is much much harder starting this year, subject to full review from both side of the government. That might also contributed to why US 1.5M+ “mansion” prices are dropping rapidly
Re:China lets yuan break 7-per-dollar level for first time i... by seanmcdirmid on Monday August 05, 2019 @09:00AM (#20613804)
Housing is in a huge bubble on both sides of the pacific, the removal of Chinese money could push the USA over the edge like it did via Japan in the late 80s/90s.