News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Goldman Sachs is spending $100M to shave milliseconds off... by FabHK on Friday August 02, 2019 @06:30PM (#20597173)
I don't know, I see many problems with this comment (akin to the writing of postmodern continental philosophers). Maybe you can restate your conjecture again?

> In effect, the amplification effect would serve to create profit by creating an apparent valuable trade where none actually exists - such trades essentially print money.

Trading is a zero sum game (notwithstanding the allocative function enabled by proper price signals), so I don't see how it would engender inflation.

> the new behaviour of central banks having to cut their interest rates to near or at zero to compensate for this asymmetric inflation

There are many theories about the persistent low rates ("secular stagnation") etc., but I've _never_ heard that particular problem linked to HFT.

> I conjecture that, by ever increasing the sampling rate and the speed at which transactions complete, markets are not being made more efficient.

That's fairly clear, and I can agree with that.

> Instead, I hypothesise that, as markets directly effect the price of the instrument reflexively, the feedback latency produced creates relative local pockets of perceived value - which are only profitable trades in relation to local information asymmetry.

What?

> As the vast majority of high-speed trading holds market positions on extremely short time scales, shifting exposure constantly, this profit is immediately realised locally resulting in the gradual diffuision of this inefficiency as the increase in price of all instruments.

Not sure what you're saying there, but of course the idea is that traders with superior information can realise trading profits, and via such trading, information spreads through the market, until no such trading opportunities persist. However, HFT does not necessarily follow this kind of Hayekian vision, but is maybe more insightfully analysed in a game-theoretic framework.

> This is a direct result of the cost of trading being factored directly into the agent's local acceptable sale price of held instruments. Every local agent trading action is ideal, but the global market is a divergently inefficient one.

> Indeed, it is a market in which its pricing inefficiency is maximally concealed from all market participants.

What?

> In a sense, I conjecture that the estimator is not functioning to increase market efficiency ...

Possibly, yes.

> ... but is, instead amplifying local inefficiency globally, in effect, much like a charge pump would operate in a voltage multiplier circuit.

How is it amplifying it? Yes, we have seen flash crashes, sure, resulting in some transfer of wealth. But this does not explain or predict inflation, geometrically accelerating market activity, nucleated false-vacuum collapse, or any such things.

Re:Goldman Sachs is spending $100M to shave milliseconds off... by justinjlynn on Friday August 02, 2019 @08:53PM (#20597907)
All excellent points and questions. I'll consider appropriate answers and restatements and respond soon. I'm rarely satisfied with my ability to communicate ideas like these. I really must express this conjecture formally - in the language of mathematics - so that it may be unambiguously communicated in the appropriate contexts.