Teslas have quite poor reliability so far:
- https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27725/tesla-fleet-company-stru...
- https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27989/teslas-screen-saga-shows...
I'm sure Tesla will improve with time but they're not going to out-Toyota Toyota any time soon.
(2009 when they built first US production line to 2015).
https://www.yourmechanic.com/article/the-most-and-least-expe...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-13/toyotas-a...
Toyota has the most flexible production and the most reliable cars. Toyota isn't the biggest selling brand by accident.
I got pretty close a few weeks ago to picking up a Model 3P but the maintenance stories spooked me. I am just not enough of an EV/Tesla enthusiast to deal with that on my commuter car.
Maintenance itself (oil changes, minor repairs) is something I'd like to eliminate, but that's a lower priority. Electric cars score better here, but it's not my top concern.
The real, key issue (to me) is whether the drivetrain is expensive. If it's expensive to build, and if it can fail in a way that something needs to be replaced, then it's going to be expensive to repair if/when needed.
And both gas cars and electric cars have expensive drivetrains, just for different reasons. On a gas car, major engine and transmission work is expensive. On an electric car, battery pack replacement is expensive.
Maybe one is less expensive than the other, so there could still be a net win here, but I definitely don't think electric cars have completely escaped the problem.
I drive a 15 year old Volvo wagon that almost never needs service :)
Of course I exaggerate - I probably average $150/month in maintenance. Sorry, but the chances of Tesla doing the same over 15 years is zero.
Electric motors have way fewer moving parts and fluids and currently are generally expected to outlast any car frame they are put in.
Most EVs advantage regenerative braking so break maintenance cycles are also longer to comparably sized ICE vehicles.
The other maintenance risks are the exact same between an EV and any other car, things like: HVAC, plastic degradation, rust, and accident damage.
The one unique Tesla risk on a 15-year horizon is their software updates. Their penchant for over-the-air software updates is handy in the short term, but possibly a risk in the long term lifespan of a vehicle. Though that's a risk Tesla would hopefully be incentivized to avoid (for bad PR at least), and possibly a mitigatable risk.
Most cars have a vigorous service schedule that is an endless sea of tire rotations, brake servicing, oil changes, belt replacements, among all of the unexpected maintenance of thousands of moving, wearing parts.
A Tesla or a comparable EV, in contrast, is a cartoonishly simplified variation with magnitudes fewer parts and maintenance needs. The probability of an EV requiring less maintenance than a ICE car is 100%.
Of course right now those EVs come at a premium, but as they hit the mainstream this is going to be a critical differentiation.
If Tesla is to ever have the same reputation, it will be because they made issues trivial to diagnose, dead simple to replace and allowed other manufactures to make replacement parts.
However, this whole argument is moot, because the era of the 15-30 year daily driver is over anyway. When my ignition computer failed, it was $35 to swap one out from a junkyard. You just have to unplug the old one, and plug in the new one and off you go. What's the procedure for replacing a computer on a 2018 Tesla in the year 2038?
Furthermore, any new car has little maintenance to really worry about within the first 100k miles. If you are upper middle class in a bougie area, you're probably buying a new car before maintenance is really an issue anyway. (cue everyone chiming in that their Subaru's turbo blew up 100 miles outside of warranty)
It isn't obvious to me people are asking for vehicles to last a million miles, people aren't clamouring for current vehicles that have done a million miles or are old enough to have done. That million mile car is also going to be a 20+ year old car, with 20 year old safety features, and 20 year old phone integration, and its also going to take 20 years for Tesla to establish that reputation.
That's not to say you're wrong, but it will take a fundamental change in peoples understanding of car ownership closer to how they own houses, that will take time, longer than Tesla has.
Brake pads should last twice as long on an EV because the motor is used to recuperate energy. Here's a good braking demonstration with the Audi e-tron descending Pikes Peak:
https://jalopnik.com/the-truth-about-brake-pad-replacement-i...
Personally, I wish they would decouple the platform from the comfort center. Have chassis form factors for various purposes (single person/roadster, crossover, truck, utility, etc) and branded “comfort centers” housing the human interface stuff. Make it so the comfort center can be changed out when ever and keeping the same underlying platform.