Re:Misunderstanding Dunning-Kruger
by Thorrez on Monday July 29, 2019 @01:18AM
(#20551696)
500%? I don't think you can compare percentiles like that.
Let's say someone estimates his percentile to be the 3rd percentile (aka 97% of people are better) and in reality he's in the 1st percentile (99% of people are better). Did he overestimate his ability by 200%? I wouldn't say so, I would say he was very very close.
Even at non-extreme percentiles I don't think such a comparison works. For example in some area it might be that people at the 10th percentile know nearly the same amount as people at the 50th percentile. If it's some area that most people know little about. So the abilities of someone at the 10th percentile would be nearly the same as the abilities of someone at the 50th percentile. So overestimating your percentile by a lot is not the same as overestimating your abilities by a lot.
Let's say someone estimates his percentile to be the 3rd percentile (aka 97% of people are better) and in reality he's in the 1st percentile (99% of people are better). Did he overestimate his ability by 200%? I wouldn't say so, I would say he was very very close.
Even at non-extreme percentiles I don't think such a comparison works. For example in some area it might be that people at the 10th percentile know nearly the same amount as people at the 50th percentile. If it's some area that most people know little about. So the abilities of someone at the 10th percentile would be nearly the same as the abilities of someone at the 50th percentile. So overestimating your percentile by a lot is not the same as overestimating your abilities by a lot.