Re:Show HN: Play rock paper and scissors against a untrained...
by jerf on Friday July 26, 2019 @12:19PM
(#20535922)
I was not making the efficiency argument in the abstract. I'm making it in the concrete of a neural network that can be trained in real time in a browser window.
There's a great deal of people who seem to mistake "the market isn't actually 100% efficient" for "oh, I guess we can just ignore the question of 'efficiency because if it's not 100% it must be 0%". Not that they say the last part out loud, of course.
The young economist looks down and sees a $20 bill on the street and says, “Hey, look a twenty-dollar bill!”
Without even looking, his older and wiser colleague replies, “Nonsense. If there had been a twenty-dollar lying on the street, someone would have already picked it up by now.”
(99% joke and snark. Of course this isn't going to work on the stock market, but that kind of efficiency argument isn't perfect.)