Not really - we're not sure if warp drive is possible given the physical constraints of the universe.

AGI is possible because intelligence is possible (and common on earth) in nature.

> AGI is possible because intelligence is possible (and common on earth) in nature.

But you haven't asked if we're capable of building it. While it might be technically possible are we capable of managing its construction?

All I see today is ways of making the process more opaque at the benefit of not having to provide the implementation. How does that technique even start to scale in terms of its construction? I worry about the exponentially increasing length of the "80% done" stage, and that's on the happy path.

Following your reasoning, flying with the speed of light is possible because photons travel with the speed of light. We are not photons though. Is it possible or not to travel with the speed of light with a spaceship?

Warp drives travel faster than the speed of light? That's what I meant by not possible.

Ignoring that if we saw miniature warp drives everywhere around us in nature then yes I would be more confident they were possible.

I see your point I just wanted to point out that there are different challenges for us than for nature. Flying like a bird has dirrent challanges than flying with a Boeing 747, even though these challenges might share a subset of the physics, like the Bernoulli’s principle.

Yep - I think that's fair and a good analogy.

Similarly to how human airplanes don't flap their wings like birds, there will probably be implementation differences that make sense but share the underlying principles. Particularly since the artificial version isn't constrained by things biology needs to handle.

No, way wrong, there would be enormous hardware costs to building a warp drive. There are near zero costs (possibly) of building AGI.

Mythical man month. I feel like you're seriously underestimating how hard this is. Its got to be one of the greatest engineering challenges of our species and to flaunt that its "near zero cost" is offensive.

Not offensive in the least, it's a compliment to what our species has done to date. We are all standing on shoulders and the shoulders have never been higher. Think of the things you can build in a day that were impossible to build 30 years ago. To think that there isn't at least some chance someone will build AGI in the next 30 years is foolish. Again, I'm just saying there is a reasonable chance, like hitting a homerun. It's not likely for any given plate appearance, but given the number of games and players it happens every summer day.

We're making the process more opaque. How can that scale to AGI? We'll be stuck at 80% done for much longer.

I would posit that while its possible, it will take so long on this tech stack that we'll find another in the interim that will produce better results. I'm not convinced this branch is the winner.

Oh, do you mean how can Azure scale to AGI? I have no opinion on Azure, I just meant someone smart will figure it out. There are huge financial incentives to do so, when that happens, we (humans) figure shit out.

> Oh, do you mean how can Azure scale to AGI?

No, not in the slightest. I mean as we progress the dev cycles get harder and slower. Then we need more engineers and the administration of more engineers working together makes everything harder.

Have you ever considered that making a rock think might be one of the greatest engineering projects our species has ever taken on? Sure humans might figure it out but I'm of the belief it will take them a very long time to. In addition, I believe that in that timescale a different tech stack might show more promise. I'm not convinced this technological branch scales all the way to AGI.

Fair point, but I think admin needs have gotten lighter. It took 400k people to get us to the moon. I want to see the results of 400k engineers working independently or in small teams on AGI.

Sounds like a great idea and I'm all for it but I'm talking about the integration of that mess. It will be like trying to hit an ant on the moon with the precision of 18th century artillery.

> Well we've removed its irrational hatred of penguins but now it struggles with the concept of Wednesday again...