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Re:2011 Predictions by brianbreslin on Tuesday December 28, 2010 @05:01PM (#2046989)
I was told I should put my level of confidence in each one by a friend. I had originally skipped that.
Re:2011 Predictions by gwern on Tuesday December 28, 2010 @08:46PM (#2047615)
If you've put enough thought into them to have a confidence level, why not give a specific probability? Then you will be able to see (to some extent) how you are poorly calibrated - overconfident, underconfident, etc.

For example, I have a ton of judged predictions on http://predictionbook.com/users/gwern so you can see my problem - low self-esteem. (I expect to take some losses when all my 2010 predictions expire in a few days, but the overall trend of underconfidence will remain.)