Re:It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion...
by josephdviviano on Monday July 08, 2019 @10:18AM
(#20382898)
Yes Japan is a perfect example. Having low rates for a long time has given rise to a lot of companies that are frankly non-competitive and would fail immediately if interest rates were raised. Consumers do not win because the quality of these companies are low.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Loose-lending-keeps-Japan-s-...
Re:It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion...
by astazangasta on Monday July 08, 2019 @12:08PM
(#20383903)
This is idiotic. We don't need a recession to clear detritus from the economy, that should be the result of routine investment. We get recessions because the economy as a whole overcommits to speculation because investors have too much money and too little sense. This is unnecessary, as thw Great Moderation shows. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Moderation
Re:It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion...
by dahart on Monday July 08, 2019 @01:45PM
(#20384956)
We've had two recessions since the start of the Great Moderation... what is it demonstrating?
I'd agree that recessions aren't necessary in theory, under assumptions that everyone can act perfectly, but that's pretty academic.
From the article: “Recessions are a healthy, necessary part of the economic cycle. They keep investors, businesses, and households disciplined. They remove overcapacity and make room for innovation and evolution. The US has endured 42 recessions and five depressions since the 1780s. The US economy recovered from every single one, returning to growth within an average of roughly one and a half years. That includes the 39 recessions and depressions that proceeded the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913, and the 20 that occurred when the US had no central bank at all. The eras of the most robust growth in American history have been punctuated by frequent recessions, not long stretches without them.”
I like the analogy of getting ansgty all at once and seeing the therapist. I probably wouldn’t characterize down-turns as money running out, though. This might be what you meant, but the money doesn’t run out per se, recessions are more like angst leading to shyness, it’s less activity rather than less money. If the money actually ran out, I imagine the chaos might be a lot bigger than we’ve ever seen.