Re:The Most Reliable Recession Indicator of the Past 50 Year...
by jjwhitaker on Wednesday July 03, 2019 @06:53PM
(#20349743)
Not so positive other things to think about.
Auto loan defaults are near record and are bundled similar t mortgages in 2007.
Student loan debt is at record high with stagnant wages over the last 10 years.
Personal loan and mortgage debt is similar to 2007.
Stock buybacks and allocation of capital away from workers is spiking after the 2017 tax cuts.
Plus, those tax cuts are counter to some schools of thought on raising taxes in a good economic period to pay back the last or save for the next economic downturn. All this with increasing spending and record increases in the deficit. The deficit has become a left wing talking point no as previous deficit hawks have walked or are no longer the opposition party.
Seriously though, this boom has been interesting for me - because I don't feel like there's been a huge psychology feeling of "Times are really good". It still feels like we're being squeezed - which doesn't make me think we're at the peak of a bubble. But then you look at IPOs and the stock market and some of the more egregious examples of bubble style valuations (WeWork for example) maybe this recession is more focused on the stock market and less far reaching than the last one (as far as it can be). It'll be really interesting to see whether the deficit comes back as a topic in the US.