Re:What is ergodicity? (2016)
by patrick5415 on Wednesday June 26, 2019 @07:51PM
(#20290504)
I disagree that statisticians should adjust their definitions to fit common usage.
I can put any probably on anything I want. That doesn’t imply those numbers mean anything usefu or that what I’m doing is backed by any established theory.
There are established theories of probability that have nothing to do with ergodicity. See for example:
Laplace - Théorie analytique des probabilités - 1812
Keynes - A Treatise on Probability - 1921
Jeffreys - Theory of Probability - 1939
Savage - The Foundations of Statistics - 1954
de Finetti - Teoria delle Probabilità - 1970
I agree with the idea that Nate Silver is an entertainer, and if he were a bookie he'd need to be more precise about the odds he places on things and his range of uncertainty. But to me that doesn't suggest that Silver shouldn't speak in terms of probability at all. For a journalist (a big caveat) he's remarkable for being rigorous, open about his level of certainty, and willing to admit to mistakes.