Does anyone here have good research on the difficulty of getting into elite schools as a transfer student? I tried to do a little research and found this page:

https://www.collegetransitions.com/transfer-admission-rates

Which seems to indicate it's slightly harder, but not by much. But, I'm concerned that your average transfer student looks a lot different from your average freshman, so I don't really believe the stats; for example I could imagine that your average transfer student has somehow "failed to launch" at their current institution, implying they're a weaker student than your average freshman application. Or, I could imagine the other way around; they've already succeeded at a community college, so they are actually stronger than your average freshman applicant and these stats are underrating how hard it is to get a transfer.