My hunch is however that what is often overlooked in development with statically typed languages is that it takes considerable time and effort to come up with the right set of types. Many examples are written showing how types almost magically make programs easier to understand. But when you read such an example what is not stated is how much effort it took to come up with just those types.
One way of thinking about it is that type-definitions are really a "second program" you must write. They check upon the primary program and validate it. But that means you must write that second program as well. It's like building an unsinkable ship with two hulls one inside the other. The quality will be great but it does cost more.
To be sure, having to write down those data structure invariants in a rigorous way that fits into the type system of your programming language has a cost. But the hard part really is coming up with the invariants, and it's dangerous to think that dynamic languages obviate the need for that.
A good example of this is matrix operations - there are plenty of invariants and contracts to check (e.g. multiplication must be between m x n and n x p matrices), but I don't believe there's yet a particularly convincing Haskell matrix library, in part because the range of relevant mathematical invariants don't cleanly fit into Haskell's type system.
For those cases, checking the invariants at runtime is your escape hatch to utilize the full expressive power of the language.
Surely. But if you have to write them down it becomes hard to change them because then you will have to rewrite them, and you may need to do that many times if your initial invariants are not the final correct ones.
The initial ones are likely not to be the final correct ones because as you say coming up with the invariants is ... the hard part.
What I'm trying to think about is that in a language that requires you to write the types down they have to be always written down correctly. So if you have to change the types you use or something about them you may have a lot of work to do because not only do you have to rewrite the types you will also have to rewrite all code that uses those types.
That does allow you to catch many errors but it can also mean a lot of extra work. The limitation is that types and executable code must always agree.
Whereas in a dynamic language you might have some parts of your program that would not even compile as such, if you used a compiler, but you don't care because you are currently focusing on another part of your program.
You want to test it fast to get fast feedback without having to make sure all parts of your program comply with the current version of your types.
A metaphor here could be something like trying to furnish a house trying out different color curtains in one room. In a statically typed language you could not see how they look and feel until all rooms have curtains of the same new color, until they all follow the same type type-constraints.
I've written once here before, this is one of the 'accidental advantages' of TypeScript: you set the compiler 'loose' when you're hacking away, writing quickly, and then 'make it more strict' as you start to consolidate your classes.
I almost don't bother to type something until I have to. Once I see it sitting there for a while, and I know it's not going to change much ... I make it a type.
It's an oddly liberating thing that I don't think was ever part of the objectives of the language, moreover, I can't think of any similar situation in other (at least mainstream) languages.
Add type hints at any time, check types at any time. Type hints can also serve purely as hints to programmers and not checked at all.
So it's the output of ONE Python programmer vs teams of other languages programmers?
It is well-known that teams cause overhead. Think of the Mythical Man-Moth.
But in the end the other teams had 3 people that were able to maintain and develop their project further, if needed. The single-person team had only one such person.
While writing the previous paragraph, I wrote 'programmer' where I had previously put 'implementation', because I would guess that this study's outcome is better explained by human factors than language differences.
I share the attitudes you state in your last paragraph, but I would add that we should be skeptical of concepts of quality that seem plausible, but which lack empirical evidence for their effectiveness.
That aside, speaking off the cuff totally separately from my post, I'm extremely dissatisfied with the performance of current compilers. The fastest compilers written by performance-oriented programmers can be way faster than ones you generally encounter. See luajit and Jonathan Blow's 50k+ loc/second compilers and the kind of things they do for performance. One example of a compiler task it's really difficult to do quickly in a language like Python/Ruby is non-regex parsing, I've written recursive descent parsers in Ruby and compiled languages and the Ruby ones were 1-2 orders of magnitude slower, non-JIT dynamic languages are really bad at tight loops like that.
Lua and Jai are lot less complex than say C++: sure, LLVM isn't necessarily built to be the fastest compiler in existence, but I don't think it's fair to compare it to compilers for much simpler languages and bemoan its relative slowness.
A caveat is that I'm pretty sure my friend intentionally sacrificed code quality to do it, I don't think you'd find that project as readable and understandable as the others. Another caveat is that you have to be okay with your codebase being extremely magical and metaprogramming-heavy, which many industrial users of dynamic languages avoid.
As I mention, I'm personally into statically typed languages mostly for the performance and correctness benefits. I think it's plausible that on larger projects with teams the correctness benefits save enough debugging time that overall implementation time is lower, but I'm less confident in this now than I was before this comparison.