News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:The Coming Ice Age (1958) by ChuckMcM on Friday June 14, 2019 @06:35PM (#20187229)
This has been one of those conversations I've followed for a while. One of the most provocative things about climate change was the notion that Global Warming could accelerate an ice age.

In popular literature, one of the more under appreciated factors in various models is the moisture carrying capacity of the atmosphere. Basically as the mean atmospheric temperature rises, the more moisture it can carry. This leads to the formation of clouds as different temperature air masses meet, and precipitation when the temperature drops below the dew point.

When you run different climate models, if the clouds form in the stratosphere the overall temperature goes up (more CO2 below the clouds to reflect IR back to the ground) if the clouds form in the troposphere the temperature goes down (clouds create a higher albedo and more energy is reflected into space rather than absorbed).

One of the papers discussing inter-glacial periods expressed essentially the same view as the Harper's article which was that kicking off an ice age would require a tremendous amount of material in the troposphere to reflect sunlight, and a bunch of water to condense into snow to boost the albedo of the surface to prevent it from absorbing solar energy and re-radiating it as heat.

In the 80's, when people looked at the possible after effects of a nuclear exchange between the US and the then USSR, it was suggested that the level of soot and ash thrown into the air would cool the planet to a point to enshroud it into a "nuclear winter." Later papers have looked not at nuclear exchanges but simply volcanic activity or firestorms of one form or another.

The duration of these effects is tied to both the amount of sunlight obstructed and reflected and the resulting weather effects.

Using those models it seems plausible that prior to the presence of humans, if the global temperature rose, it would dry out vast tracks of forests and grasslands in the mid-lattitudes, those tracks would be set on fire by lightning creating a tremendous soot load on the atmosphere. Once the soot layer forms, the temperature falls, and the atmosphere drops its moisture as precipitation. If the temperature is low enough it becomes snow, and gets compacted into ice. The ice become glaciers and it takes a while for the cycle to reset.

For me, it is an interesting aspect of climate dynamics on the water cycle as a feedback loop sort of problem. I have yet to see any paper that suggests the 'venus mode' (runaway greenhouse effect leading to boiling the oceans) is any more or less likely than the 'snowball mode', other than we have a geologic record of the planet going snowball mode on its own several times over the last million years.

Re:The Coming Ice Age (1958) by bartimus on Friday June 14, 2019 @07:40PM (#20187553)
Considering the next ice age is inevitable in normal circumstances. What terraforming options do we have to prevent an ice age? Maximizing the greenhouse effect by releasing more CO2 sounds like something worth exploring?
Re:The Coming Ice Age (1958) by ghthor on Sunday June 16, 2019 @05:20AM (#20194645)
I also had similar thought to this. Were coming up on a minimum period in the solar cycle that produced a mini ice age, Grand solar minimum. I wonder if our co2 blanket will counteract the reduction in global temps we saw during the last grand solar min.
Re:The Coming Ice Age (1958) by ChuckMcM on Friday June 14, 2019 @08:11PM (#20187670)
That is the rub isn't it? We are currently over generating green house gasses (relative to non-anthropocentric sources), so whether we want to or not we are "exploring that option."