NOAA upgrades the U.S. global weather forecast model

Re:NOAA upgrades the U.S. global weather forecast model by labster on Thursday June 13, 2019 @11:50PM (#20180461)

The physics is pretty well known at this point, and there's only so much you can gain by increasing from second to third order approximation. The errors in the initial conditions are just larger. Most of the action has been on data assimilation and better parameterizations because of that.

I've been out of the field for ten years now, but it's really nice to see improvements to the core physics to this degree.

I'm still skeptical of your supposed two week 500 heights forecast from the ECMWF model. I live near the western Pacific (i.e. the data hole) and it's really easy to find crazy model solutions after 7 days. And I'm pretty sure you weren't looking at the Southern Hemisphere.

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Re:NOAA upgrades the U.S. global weather forecast model by dls2016 on Friday June 14, 2019 @08:47AM (#20182515)

> I'm still skeptical of your supposed two week 500 heights forecast from the ECMWF model.

You're probably right to be skeptical, for the record I was only a forecaster for a short period of time over ten years ago... didn't even serve my full four year commitment as I volunteered to get out under the Air Force "force shaping" at the time. I was stationed near Rammstein and we created forecasts for Europe. I was referring to the ECMWF ensemble products, specifically.

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