Dockless, electric is a game-changer. JUMP bikes hit 20MPH in a few seconds, take less effort than will get you sweaty (critical for meetings/commuting) and you can take the bike lane. Then the vast majority of the time you just hook it up to whatever chunk of metal is nearby and you're done. It's the fastest way between almost any 2 points in SF and often the most convenient too.
At $2 for 30min + $0.07/min it was an absolute steal. At $3 I may have to think harder but if it makes the economics work, I'm still in. I basically stopped using Uber and pay $5-7/day for all the electric biking I need. Could I buy one for a years' fees? Yep. But I don't want to deal with the hassle of owning.
It literally should just take the Ford GoBike stations, and convert them into bike parking for only their brand of "dockless" bikes. Even if they don't have exclusivity over dockless bikes, having a monopoly over dedicated parking spots would make their brand of dockless bikes way more convenient.
Instead, scooters have taken over the city instead.
If I'm opening their app regardless of which transportation method I end up using, I'm more likely to keep coming back and will frequently choose to move up a tier (scooter -> bike -> car) if the price is "just a few dollars more".
It's worth considering the data component as well -- there's a tangible benefit to knowing which mode of transportation people are choosing for which trips.
OTOH, I don't think that the e-bike/scooter companies will ever be profitable. I wouldn't be surprised if the people running those companies are equally cynical.
“According to more than 1,600 participants who responded to the survey, 60% of San Diego Lime riders identify as Hispanic and 54% report an annual household income of $50,000 or less. Additionally, 1 in 4 Lime riders are 36 years old or older, with an average age of 31, and 16.5% of them have previously served or are currently serving in the US military.”
https://www.li.me/second-street/more-diversity-less-car-use-...
FWIW, I think your analysis (young, educated, bourgeois) is spot on, and that bikeshare companies are completely aware. Check out this map of Citi Bike's availability:
https://member.citibikenyc.com/map/
If you're not familiar with NYC: it's only available in business, wealthly/middle-class, and rapidly gentrifying areas. To continue my baseless speculation: it wouldn't surprise me if Citi Bike's (hypothetical) profitability relied on only serving these populations. Reprehensible, and another reason to agitate for bike shares as an extension of public transport.
Not writing off! I'm in that demographic. But let's call a spade a spade.
That being said, I think there's a substantial difference between PCs/cellphones/digital photography and bikesharing: the former were also adopted as business interests, while the latter is just a luxury or employment perk. PCs and cellphones reshaped the office, digital cameras reshaped newstelling and photojournalism; I find it hard to believe that bikesharing-qua-private-service will be doing much reshaping.
Not as big as cellphones obviously. Still something.
People who travel to client sites in dense urban environments may have even more interesting numbers.
This works very very well for first world Western societies.
The places where they have become nuisances are largely those that have been flooded with multiple competing (usually dockless) systems, because it turns out that you don't need a large capital investment to create a lot of junk sitting idle that gets in people's way.
I think bikeshare systems should be municipally owned (or at least municipally regulated). For me, the real killer app would be one that lets me get a bikeshare in any city.
I believe it's run by the local authority, and at such a level its easy to explain why it's much more likely to be economically viable. The state also has to deal with the externalities associated with other forms of transport (traffic, noise, pollution etc.), as well as the health consequences of its citizens. Additionally, it's not-dockless - which I think massively reduces the nuisance on everyone else.
I think the system is still docked though, isn't it? IIRC, you don't have to physically attach your bike to a docking station when you're done, but you are required to park within a certain (small) radius of a station to end your trip.
Nobody is "littering" the streets with cars. You just don't agree with the specifics of how the government has allocated the physical space resources under its control so you see it that way.
Don't get me wrong, I'm definitely on Team Ban Cars. But I think that recent unregulated dockless schemes have demonstrated that access to street/sidewalk space is the limiting factor for these companies, and it's sensible to restrict this access somewhat.
We have a docked system already but Lime scooters litter the sidewalks all over town. Why not remove a few car parking spots and require scooters be parked there? One spot could hold many scooters and keep them off the sidewalks.
London for example are phasing in stricter low-emission areas, which should technically mean less cars will be passing through. Eventually, they could re-purpose roads so that the primary function of them is for pedestrians, bikes, bike/scooter storage etc rather than 4+ lanes of car traffic.
That is why I believe it is temporary anyway, it seems natural that cities will head this way.
Maybe lyft wants to use it to strengthen their brand perception. They have bikes too = they are environmental friendly! Also play the marketing illusion that they are everywhere, as essentially people will be moving around the city riding lyft branded bikes.
s/grand new ponzi//
The capital is cheaper than ever and so is the hype.
Just not the big names
They also don't comply with GDPR. After confirming several times they have completely deleted my account and any reference to my email, I still get marketing emails from them every now and again.
Hence, as long as vandalism is not too much of a problem and thus the service can be provided cheaply, it should be profitable.
There is also a natural moat since once you are subscribed to the service with the most bikes you have an incentive to stick with it.
Lots of dumb money in the market too. Reminds me of Crypto before each collapse.
I've been a Mobike subscriber for a year now (in Berlin). The bikes are crap (i.e. cheap, in need of maintenance) but they are everywhere and I see it as saving on gym cost (hard work to ride one). But, if I need to get from A to B, I get one because I already payed for it. I probably payed them around 100 euros or so over the last year. I just renewed for 3 months for 24 euros. Every time I do this the price seems to change. This gets me unlimited 30 minute rides. After that they charge 1 euro per additional 30 minutes (tip, lock and unlock seems to work). I consider this good value. I don't have to worry about bike repairs, bike theft, or leaving my bike in a dodgy area. As soon as I lock it, it's not my problem.
I've done over 1200 km on mobikes in the last 12 months. Even in the winter when the weather is less nice, I still used them enough to make it worth the subscription.
The back of the envelope math is pretty interesting. If you have 10K users like me that's about 1M revenue. For a city like Berlin (4M inhabitants), you can probably do better. At 100 euro per bike, 1M buys you 10K bikes. I have no idea what these things cost per year but both the upfront investment to flood a city with bikes and setting up the support organization (maintenance mainly) are not that high. I'd say if they shoot for recurring revenue from around 20K users in a city like this, they ought to be very profitable. They have plenty of capacity to improve utilization as at this rate most bikes are not in use most of the time.
The main issues I've seen with competitors is that they think too small. Something like Mobike only makes sense if you can find one without effort. A lot of the failed startups in this space did not have enough bikes or too complex bikes (they break). Launching with a few hundred bikes is pointless. Everybody that did this in Berlin is gone (ofo, byke (with a y), lime, etc. Mobike did this right. They flooded the city with between 5K and 10K bikes. They are all over the place. I suspect the bulk price for these things is pretty OK. The main challenge is the growth strategy: they need recurring revenue.
I suspect Jump, which recently re-launched here, won't make it in Berlin because they don't do subscriptions, their operational zone is tiny, and they don't have enough bikes on the streets. The value proposition kind of sucks compared to Mobike.
Mobike looks like it might fail because their bikes are deteriorating and they seem to be in limbo now that their China based headquarters looks like they want to focus on just China. Apparently they are looking to sell off the European operations. I think it's an operation worth saving but it is going to take an investment to keep their existing user base and there's a bit of urgency because the experience is getting worse as the bikes get shittier.
The only way to mess this up is poor execution. There seems a lot of that in this business. But it's not an inherently bad business.
Another thing beyond me is although the business model/development of this kind seems to be bound to fail, why they are still chased by enormous amount of capital.
My cynical suspicion is these so call tech start ups are just instrument of a grand new ponzi scheme in which a bunch of investors use borrowed money(from banks, insurance company and the likes) to set up a start up and increase the value of it(manufacture hype to justify the inflation along the way) and the sell to public, which is mainly pension funds, 401k, government backed institutions and so one, that is, ordinary folks.
I hope someone would correct me and shed some light on this matter.