I think it's important to remember that a big part of the value prop of these services is that when you open the app to hail a car, you're pretty much assured of getting that car within 15 minutes or so. Change the current equilibrium much and that benefit might go away. I could hail a cab by phone before Uber, but, in Chicago, where we have pretty reasonable cab service (certainly light years better than SFBA's), it would often take multiple attempts and involve a 30+ minute wait. You could reliably get a private car in NYC, but, as I recall from all the times I worked in NYC, you weren't getting that car in 15 minutes.

Fair point. Around where I live, they seem pretty scarce the few times I've looked at the app out of curiosity. I don't know how long a typical pickup would take. But there's certainly some density level of drivers/passengers below which the market doesn't work. In fact, any percentage decrease presumably decreases service everywhere to some degree and shrinks the areas where Uber/Lyft can effectively operate at all.

I do use private cars but pretty much to get back and forth to the airport.

You’re overestimating how good the cab systems are outside of Chicago and the coasts. There is a lot of value in just having a reliable hailing system with a review system and tracking of where your pickup is, even if there is a 30 min delay.

The state of the art of cabs in smaller cities is getting hung up on, ghosted, or massively delayed when given a different ETA if you don’t book the cab hours in advance.

I think I'm doing the opposite, and saying that on-demand hailing of cabs without subsidy was and, when subsidies collapse, likely will be a lot worse than people think they'll be.

Yes, this is absolutely key for me. Effectively never needing to worry about being able to get a ride to and from wherever I need at any time removes a huge amount of stress and overhead from my life. The minute that stops being reliable, I have to start planning my travel and movements around transportation methods that ARE reliable (e.g. rental cars, or driving my own car). Once I've rented a car or driven my own car, the chances that I will use an Uber or Lyft for any part of that trip drop to near zero.

I for one have already switched from Uber to Jump (which Uber now owns anyway) for casual use where I’m not in a hurry. A bicycle is more pleasant to use, I don’t have to wait for pickup, it’s way cheaper, and I get a little exercise. The electric motor helps me not get sweaty.

During rush-ish hour it’s also faster than a car due to lane splitting and such.

The math goes like this: $15 for a car that takes 15min + 5min of waiting, or $3 for a bike that takes 10min + some pedaling? Is easy decision

This is downtown SF so we’re talking lots of traffic and short distances.

I think it's important to point out though the number of cities where biking is impractical (and can even be unsafe). In many parts of Europe, this is probably a good model. In San Francisco, this could work. In Seattle, where now live, I've seen an uptick in rented bikes (though plenty of regular bikers too) -- but it really depends on what type of commute you're making. In New York, it depends on area -- but if you're really concerned about time/money you'll take the subway. But in Atlanta or Los Angeles, this isn't going to be a solution for most people that use Uber now.