But total is ~8k model 3 VS 54k leaf. People wanting a leaf could already buy one, while model 3 customers could only preorder. So these stats over a short timeframe only tell us that newer models sell better and that delivery of preorders skews the stats massively.

Now you’re comparing total lifetime sales numbers for a model car that just started shipping in a market this February with a model that’s been shipping since, what, 2010?

Of course there’s nothing stopping Nissan from introducing a new upgraded Leaf in 2019. Maybe they did?

> Of course there’s nothing stopping Nissan from introducing a new upgraded Leaf in 2019. Maybe they did?

Yes they did. And it starts shipping to european customers this summer as per <1>. So you’re comparing preorder shipment numbers for tesla model 3 with previous gen leafs when a model refresh is coming and the new model can actually already be preordered. And the leaf still is not far behind in May.

<1> https://europe.nissannews.com/en-GB/releases/release-90b1ce8...

Total TM3 registrations for 2019 is 7973, which is exactly GPs point. There was a big rush of deliveries in March.

For May, the Volkswagen e-Golf outsold the TM3 by 25%.

Which is playing the same Beta game. Would it be fair to just go by the YTD then?

Why would YTD be any fairer? By not being able to deliver, Tesla caused a massive backlog that they fulfill this year. Had they been able to deliver in December 2018, YTD would look much worse.

There is no perfect comparison and there never will be. Having said that, YTD would at least smooth out the month to month fluctuations caused by Tesla's supply and shipment schedule.

Arguably a reasonable approach might be to throw away the month that Tesla had its highest deliveries but still use the sum of all other months.

There’s a ton of options to make the stats better comparable. What I primarily wanted to point out is that an arbitrary cutoff point skews the stats. For any cutoff point you choose to make your point I can pick another. An interesting comparison would be the 2nd,3rd,4th month of sales of the 2019 leaf vs the model 3. But the leaf isn’t shipping to Europe yet afaics.

Yes that's true, I should have said that they begin delivering cars after a long time of booking orders. Look at the number of Tesla Model 3s that were registered in various countries prior to March 2019.

The most interesting thing to watch will be how sales progress over the first full year of deliveries in each market.

Obviously the first quarter will be a rush of deliveries in each market as the backlog clears. Then there will be a trough where everyone who was an early adopter has got theirs and the late majority starts to consider all these TM3s they see scooting around.

How quickly Tesla recovers from the trough and how high the long term market share will go is absolutely the Billion dollar question.

Reportedly strong demand this quarter in North America points to the TM3 potentially having broad appeal beyond the EV zealots, but it’s very much too early to tell.

If you know the answer to this question, it’s the difference between TSLA at $10 and TSLA at $500. I have my own opinion, and I put some money on it. But I’m a TM3 owner, I absolutely adore the machine, and I think it’s 5 years ahead of any competition and is going to absolutely clean up as people realize it’s sensational to drive, it doesn’t actually cost $80k (can’t tell you how many people I’ve talk to that think that) and in particular the long term TCO is actually downright economical.