And while the USA is fairly close to be a [net exporter of liquid hydrocarbons](https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/12/09/no-the-u-s-i...) (not crude oil), the future of tight oil doesn't look good - Laherrere seems to forecast peak tight oil for 2018 :
Sure, maybe we'll figure out how to economically extract even less conventional hydrocarbons (like shale oil = kerogen, which you have to "cook" before it can be used), but these will be even more expensive and polluting !
King Hubbert was laughed at when he predicted in 1956 that USA oil production would peak in a decade or so. It did.
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdf
In 1998 Campbell & Laherrère predicted "The End of Cheap Oil" before 2010, due to the peak of conventional oil.
http://www.oilcrisis.com/campbell/endofcheapoil.pdf
The International Energy Agency called them "pessimists" :
http://petrole.blog.lemonde.fr/files/2011/04/weo1998.1302253...
In 1998-1999 the price of an oil barrel fell from $30 to $20.
In 2008 it reached $160.
These days it fluctuates between $40 and $70.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-cha...
In 2010 the same IEA said that conventional oil production had peaked in 2006.
https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publicatio...
And while the USA is fairly close to be a [net exporter of liquid hydrocarbons](https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/12/09/no-the-u-s-i...) (not crude oil), the future of tight oil doesn't look good - Laherrere seems to forecast peak tight oil for 2018 :
https://aspofrance.files.wordpress.com/2018/03/lahall19march...
(it takes a while to collect the data...)
Sure, maybe we'll figure out how to economically extract even less conventional hydrocarbons (like shale oil = kerogen, which you have to "cook" before it can be used), but these will be even more expensive and polluting !