The other thing that jumps out at me is just that this hypothetical is mostly kicking the can down the road. If Fedora suddenly decided to support multiple init systems I think it's hard to envision a future where the happy path wouldn't remain systemd; it's what the core folks think is best, otherwise they wouldn't use it now, and even with additional support the lion's share of attention would go to that happy path. To that end I think that any sort of init choice in those distros just becomes "so we'll support it for now, but the set of third party stuff that supports it is going to continue to shrink, so I hope you have an off-ramp in the future."
Between these two issues it seems like separate distros that have a firm commitment to not-systemd end up being necessary anyway and an ecosystem of not-systemd stuff will need to compete for value on those merits. What am I missing?
I do, it's "if you run a big mainstream distro like Fedora or Debian, let your users swap out init systems". I know there have been debates on this, and I know the general consensus is "it's not worth the trouble / it's not as simple as just swapping out something like systemd". My counter arguments are: there are distros that are doing it, so it doesn't seem like it's that bad after all, and when dealing with something as important as PID 1 (or your libc, or your filesystem) we should be conservative and let users swap things back when making a huge change.