Chinese entrepreneurs have been opening factories in Africa, actually.

Relevant podcast:

https://hbr.org/ideacast/2017/11/the-hardscrabble-business-o...

If negative pressure is sustained long enough, alternatives will be developed. How long has China held a dominant position in electronics assembly? Less than 20 years...and that would be generous.

So things can change, definitely not overnight, but in a few years.

Well, before China, it was Japan. They dominated the 80s and a good chunk of the 90s. They still have a lead in markets such as cameras and are fairly competitive for technologies like Flash, which they actually invented. Samsung passed Toshiba a decade ago or so.

Don’t forget Taiwan and Korea.

Yeah, those have been displacing Japan along with China. I mentioned Samsung, but was mostly focusing on Japan as an example of a country whose star can and did dim, as a potential parallel for future China. It has taken longer than the few years the parent poster cited.

It's also worth noting that China still has a long way to go when you look at particular markets such as semiconductors, where export controls have slowed them down.

Japan was displaced by them significantly in the 90s, then China displaced everyone mid 2000-2010.

I agree, if there is a region with the labor force and good policy for investment plus infra and a few other things. Vietnam is a close enough option, but other options are not abundant, so more than just a few years would be a plausible answer for me.

China for long was a phenomenal combination of size, quality, and a price for workforce you can't find anywhere.

Eastern Europe - mass higher education check, everything else no

India - size yes, but nothing else, and there is "license raj" on top of that. One sweetener is the future domestic market appeal

Vietnam - mini-China, good primary and vocational education check, size OK, industry, some leftovers from pre-privatisation era, check - pretty much same as China was in that regard.

Pakistan... very cheap for sure, existing industry is nonexistent, (though Pakistan once had a backend FAB in late eighties!) and with Rupee hitting the bottom now, you can overlook how poor the logistics will be.

They can’t run away, but, automation will make millions unemployed, that is almost a worse problem, none to blame !