Diesel's growth for private vehicles here in Europe came about purely from changed incentives, and changed sales rates almost immediately. That's for a switch to an alternative with all the refuelling and associated infrastructure already in place.
As electric infrastructure - and crucially vehicle choice - continues to expand, with comparable incentives there's no reason it couldn't achieve as significant a switch in similar time. For most it's the car that makes the sale, not the fuel or number of cylinders.
It's my most petrol-headed friends who also seem to have become the most enthusiastic about EVs.
It's ironic reading something like this on a technology website, an industry where scale and rapid development have delivered astounding value. Cars are just the latest product to be gobbled up by the same hyper-efficient industry.
My prediction is the car industry will look like the PC industry in the future. Complicated drive trains have been replaced by simple motors close to the wheel. You don't have to architect a car around them anymore. Scaling will produce more generic and interchangeable parts at much better prices. Soon we'll be talking about our latest build, but it will be a car, not a computer.
This has already started with enthusiasts transplanting reclaimed Tesla innards into other shells:
Your link to people transplanting Tesla innards into other shells: people have done this since the 1930s. Back then it was called a Hot Rod, today aftermarket parts in the US alone is a $300+ billion industry.
Assuming that you want a diesel, do you still want it if you don't know whether you'll be permitted to drive that thing in the place where you want to go on vacation?
You are drastically over-estimating the propensity for change of the majority of the population. In Europe we have diesel versus gasoline wars with supporters of each side declaring that the other is pure crap. The idea these people would just run the numbers, see that electric is more efficient and go to the dealers to pickup an electric car is funny.
We aren't even in the first phases of consumer adoption, we haven't seen the first waves of cheap knock-offs that try to capitalize on the trend and possibly set the public expectations about electrics to low levels. What we have is an american tech startup building a highly advanced and expensive car, and the major manufacturers hedging their bets and announcing electric models to make sure they are not caught off guard.