When I see long haul trucks driving along highways with humans only taking over in the populated areas I'll believe full self driving may only be a decade away. Tackling the full self driving consumer market when there's lower hanging fruit makes no sense.

They could wipe out Über.

Based on what?

It seems this is a classic estimation problem, and we need performance data points to fit a curve. Do we have anyting? Do we even know if this is a problem where we have a chance at accelerated compounding (so exponential improvement rate)?

Based on the fact that we don't have acceptable performance on clear, sunny, well-marked roads today, I don't expect that we're within a year of handling snow-covered roads, road detours, human flagged construction details, etc.

I think the self-driving car efforts are dramatically underestimating the effort required to close those gaps to zero at least in the hype machine but also perhaps in the daily working cycle. (That's all well and good; I'm sure that any audacious engineering program should discount some of the hardest parts lest everyone get discouraged and never begin.)