Re:Boom in Dodgy Wall Street Deals Points to Market Trouble ...
by neoflex on Thursday May 16, 2019 @11:39AM
(#19929984)
So... what term put option would be best?
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Re:Boom in Dodgy Wall Street Deals Points to Market Trouble ...
by MrMember on Thursday May 16, 2019 @11:51AM
(#19930102)
As the saying goes, the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Even if someone can correctly predict a market crash, correctly timing it to make money is extremely difficult. You could go all in on far out of the money January 2020 puts only for the market to continue climbing and then crash hard in February 2020.
Re:Boom in Dodgy Wall Street Deals Points to Market Trouble ...
by findjashua on Thursday May 16, 2019 @02:10PM
(#19931328)
One could keep rolling the puts forward, though it would be a drag on returns if the market stays above the strike and the options stay out of the money.
Re:Boom in Dodgy Wall Street Deals Points to Market Trouble ...
by maxxxxx on Thursday May 16, 2019 @12:29PM
(#19930424)
I tried to play this game before 2000 and it's amazing how often market can have an even steeper upturn before it finally crashes.
Re:Boom in Dodgy Wall Street Deals Points to Market Trouble ...
by pmart123 on Thursday May 16, 2019 @01:24PM
(#19930929)
Susquehanna made a killing during the dotcom crash by selling near-dated options and buying longer-dated options. Essentially, the majority of the market was pricing the dotcom crash to be very similar to the 1987 crash. Instead, it was closer to a slow bleed.
Re:Boom in Dodgy Wall Street Deals Points to Market Trouble ...
by TheOtherHobbes on Thursday May 16, 2019 @04:12PM
(#19932645)
The flip side of "The markets can stay irrational..." is "Someone will probably get lucky anyway. But just because they did, doesn't mean you can learn anything useful from them."
Re:Boom in Dodgy Wall Street Deals Points to Market Trouble ...
by dralley on Thursday May 16, 2019 @02:21PM
(#19931446)
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
Re:Boom in Dodgy Wall Street Deals Points to Market Trouble ...
by preommr on Thursday May 16, 2019 @11:46AM
(#19930044)
nobody knows and anyone that says they do is speculating.
Re:Boom in Dodgy Wall Street Deals Points to Market Trouble ...
by JudgeWapner on Thursday May 16, 2019 @12:21PM
(#19930365)
probably around the next presidential election.