There's no evidence that costs went up after the ACA more than they would have, and, in particular, costs grew significantly faster under Bush than they have at any point after the ACA. I'm not sure I understand why we're supposed to give credence to HN-style first-principles analysis of why insurance costs should have increased; in particular, most employer-provided health plans already complied with the ACA's coverage requirements. The data simply doesn't back these arguments up.