News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
[dead]
Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by cageface on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @12:41AM (#19794566)
I wish I could downvote this 100 times. I wonder how future generations will explain our decision to just stand in front of an oncoming freight train.

I remember growing up as a kid watching the intro sequence to the road warrior and thinking it was entertaining but pretty unlikely that we’d screw up that badly. But now it seems pretty prophetic.

Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by dexen on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @12:28PM (#19798732)
>I wish I could downvote this 100 times

There's a reason we don't give people more voting power in politics, economics, etc., based on the strength of their convictions.

If you want to have people follow proposals and programs you espouse, package the proposals & programs properly. "Pay more taxes to maintain status quo" doesn't cut it. "Earth will be uninhabitable in X years" has been cried one thousand times too many and will never be believable.

"Cheaper energy and nicer cars and cleaner environment and happier dolphins and less waste" is great. Even better, the case makes itself: most people have already witnessed great improvements in all those through our lifetimes, and can easily imagine more of the good stuff.

A pale blue dot, if you can keep it.

Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by CzechTech on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @12:43AM (#19794571)
Here's a question: What if I don't care about "future generations"?
Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by cageface on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @12:58AM (#19794629)
A species that destroys its habitat will go extinct.

So I guess we’ll see if natural selection removes people like you from the gene pool so the species itself can continue to evolve or if the dynamics are too extreme and this is part of the great filter.

Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by LoSboccacc on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @05:18AM (#19795613)
> natural selection removes people like you

natural selection pressure the species whole, what survives next is just those that were somehow more adapt to the new environment, it doesn't carry any punitive or karmatic meaning.

it might very well be that psychopaths will be the one surviving the first aftermath by virtue of their selfishness

Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by cageface on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @05:27AM (#19795657)
That's the problem. Generally there are selective pressures against excessively selfish behavior but since climate change is relatively slow and distributed I'm not sure if that will apply in this case.

Maybe in this case selection pressure applies to entire species or planets and is one of the reasons we haven't detected any signs of intelligent life outside the solar system?

Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by koonsolo on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @04:32AM (#19795443)
In that case, the chances of your genes, ideology, etc. surviving is pretty slim compared to those who do care.

It's not that not caring is "wrong", it just has a lower chance of beating natural selection.

Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by crispinb on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @07:48PM (#19802887)
> It's not that not caring is "wrong"

Er, actually that's just it. It's (to put it mildly) eccentric to think otherwise.

Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by jogjayr on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @01:45AM (#19794842)
Most people alive have children or descendants, and therefore have an incentive to care. You're in the minority.
Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by ahmedalsudani on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @12:45AM (#19794577)
Not a problem at all. Just admit it so we can be honest about where your arguments come from.
Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by p1necone on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @01:03AM (#19794658)
I notice this quite often - people will be arguing completely logically but from a axiomatic starting point that I (and probably most people) would find abhorrent or misinformed.

They will obscure the axioms they're arguing from so as to not get immediately dismissed, and instead just look rational at a glance and intellectually dishonest when you ask too many questions or read too carefully.

Props to CzechTech for being upfront at least.

Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by crispinb on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @01:42AM (#19794823)
Admitting sociopathy (outside of financial & real estate circles) is generally a losing strategy.
Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by chewz on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @04:43AM (#19795485)
I agree with you. I am 50, no children.

I have spent last 10 years travelling, sailing the ocean, hiking in jungles, diving in the reefs that would be extinct soon. I live in a climate where some moderate warming will make more pleasant.

I do not care what will happen beyond 20 years ahead. Maybe even less.

So why would I inconvinience myself? Why worry? People will get exactly what they deserve.

On the other hand somehow it doesn't seem right.

Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by kot-behemoth on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @06:09AM (#19795794)
"People will get exactly what they deserve". What have children born today done to "deserve" the devastating consequences that are going to unfold? Your view is fascinatingly self-centered and ruthless.
Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by chewz on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @07:23AM (#19796103)
> Your view is fascinatingly self-centered and ruthless.

Perhaps but I haven't seen any of my middle class friends taking their children to school on a bike or by public transport. And when I point that it is possible it is always "Meh, it is more convinient in my car and I am above that".

If people with children do not care why should I?

Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by crispinb on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @07:51PM (#19802918)
Caring about children isn't about arguing from premises. Indeed if someone claims to need an argument to care about children, it's a pretty good prima facie case for the existence of a psychological disorder.
Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by baruchthescribe on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @02:01AM (#19794905)
The intro to The Road Warrior postulates that two great warrior tribes went to war and that the world's reliance on oil was fatally crippled as a result. Not a word about climate change anywhere.

When you were growing up, did you watch NASA's James Hansen saying in 2008 that we would have NO Arctic sea ice in summer by 2018? Was he correct? No?

Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by flukus on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @02:36AM (#19795032)
> When you were growing up, did you watch NASA's James Hansen saying in 2008 that we would have NO Arctic sea ice in summer by 2018? Was he correct? No?

Got a full quote in context? You "skeptics" have a tendency to miss things like "as soon as" and "if this trend continues".

Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by baruchthescribe on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @12:21PM (#19798622)
No, we tend to take what people say at face value. Even if they're fraudulent hacks like James Hansen: https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1988&dat=20080624&id=...
Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by flukus on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @11:17PM (#19804324)
> Hansen, echoing work by other scientests, said that in five to 10 years, the arctic will be free of sea ice in the summer.

That's not even a quote, let alone one in context.

Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by baruchthescribe on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @11:37PM (#19804455)
Run along little gamma. He said it in front of Congress. It's in the Congressional record. There is boatloads of coverage of what he said at the time and his prediction, like all of his others before it, is complete bollocks.
Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by hn_throwaway_99 on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @12:19AM (#19794510)
How does your statement follow from the graph you link? It clearly shows the years 2015-present are more than 2 standard deviations below the average from 1981-2000.
Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by cageface on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @04:05AM (#19795318)
The oil industry’s FUD has done its job here. I don’t completely understand how they managed to turn this into a partisan left/right issue but hats off to them for understanding how to play the system so well.

Lately I wonder if there are other intelligent species on other worlds that managed to deal with this problem like adults or if technological change always outpaces social and political maturity.

[dead]
[dead]
Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by cr1895 on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @06:48AM (#19795955)
Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by mattygh on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @12:23AM (#19794525)
Yes it is: https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/arctic-meteorology/climate_chan...

"Over the past 30 years, it has warmed more than any other region on earth"

Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by baruchthescribe on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @02:02AM (#19794912)
Ask NOAA for their temperature records going back a century and see if it's normal and cyclical instead of their cherry picked data from 1979 onwards.
Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by viraptor on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @09:36AM (#19796843)
It would be problematic for an agency established in 1970 to get "their temperature records" from 1918. Unless you mean another specific agency that existed at the time, but I don't think that's likely. If you want research from NOAA and other sources, it's been linked already.
Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by baruchthescribe on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @12:49PM (#19798994)
OK, ask them for their research going back to 1970 because strangely enough, they leave out everything before 1981 to give the impression that Arctic ice is on a downward trend.
Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by viraptor on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @05:19PM (#19801736)
You're assuming that they immediately started measuring it after forming NOAA. Do you have a good reason for this? I've found no reason to believe they have their own measurements from before what's currently presented.
Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by baruchthescribe on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @06:58PM (#19802514)
The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has a 1990 report that uses NOAA data from 1974. It shows that Arctic sea ice is cyclical, as it's always been, and had a peak in 1979. SO NOAA was measuring sea ice extent at least as far back as 1974.

https://web.archive.org/web/20120428072521/https://www.ipcc....

Also, the third graph on page 202 shows that the Earth was MUCH warmer a thousand years ago than it is now, despite far less CO2. This isn't particularly surprising since carbon dioxide levels track global temperature - not the other way around - as the ice core data going back 800 000 years shows.

The 1985 Department of Energy report Projecting the Climatic Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide uses data going back to 1925 that shows, surprise, that Arctic sea ice is normal, cyclical and has nothing to do with CO2 levels.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/236534420_Projectin...

Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by viraptor on Thursday May 02, 2019 @01:36AM (#19805048)
> Also, the third graph on page 202 shows that the Earth was MUCH warmer a thousand years ago than it is now, despite far less CO2.

It's true, but doesn't prove your point. Specifically, we're still left with two options: what we see now is the same cyclic effect, or what we see now is caused by us and if we get another cycle on top we're screwed even faster. You'd have to show the inverse - that the production of lots of CO2 does not affect the cyclic process. (Or that the pattern of the current raise is extremely likely to belong to a cycle)

Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by ahmedalsudani on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @12:20AM (#19794512)
That graph literally shows the average for 1981-2000 and the last 4 years, which are consistently and significantly below the average.
Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by baruchthescribe on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @01:48AM (#19794853)
You would have go back and look at the whole century to see that it's just part of the normal cycle.
Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by petersellers on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @03:01AM (#19795108)
You are making the claim so you need to show the evidence (especially since it contradicts accepted scientific consensus). Don't be lazy and force other people to do your work for you as you won't have a chance in hell of convincing anyone that way.

What you've linked so far shows that the sea ice level of the past 5 years is well below even 2 standard deviations under the average, which contradicts your claim. Not sure what you were trying to prove by posting that link.

Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by baruchthescribe on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @04:34PM (#19801355)
I remember when it was accepted scientific consensus that plate tectonics was a crock of shit. Didn't make it any less true. If the data shows that the Arctic is doing fine, then I don't care how many climate alarmists say it's melting if it isn't. Tony Heller destroys the fundamental deception of global warming here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8RwjYkYCXnU
Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by petersellers on Thursday May 02, 2019 @12:39AM (#19804799)
>I remember when it was accepted scientific consensus that plate tectonics was a crock of shit. Didn't make it any less true.

No one is saying science is infallible. It's just the best explanation for what we're seeing so far, based on empirical evidence. Your argument that science was wrong about something in the past does absolutely nothing to support any of your claims - for that you need to post evidence.

>If the data shows that the Arctic is doing fine, then I don't care how many climate alarmists say it's melting if it isn't.

Your own link you posted contradicts this. I'm starting to think that you don't understand the contents of your own link, because it very clearly contradicts what you are trying to say.

>Tony Heller destroys the fundamental deception of global warming here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8RwjYkYCXnU

This is a typical tactic used by climate change deniers. Ask for evidence - when they can't provide any, they distract and post something completely different and try to deflect.

I'll spend 10 minutes of my time watching that video after you spend a little effort and post a scientific paper that supports your original claim.

Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by baruchthescribe on Thursday May 02, 2019 @09:56AM (#19807925)
Here: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/236534420_Projectin...

Arctic sea ice is normal and cyclical and follows both short and long term cycles.

Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by petersellers on Thursday May 02, 2019 @11:13PM (#19815200)
"sea ice extent" shows up 3 times in that 400 page paper, and those phrases where it's mentioned don't support anything related to your initial claim.
Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by richardhod on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @07:47AM (#19796199)
Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by baruchthescribe on Wednesday May 01, 2019 @04:48PM (#19801501)
Not trolling. I genuinely believe that the evidence shows that a) carbon dioxide has nothing to do with warming and b) the world's climate is just fine. Your linked piece starts with the misleading graph from NOAA which conveniently starts at the peak of 1979, omitting all of the data we have since the 1920s showing Arctic sea ice is cyclical.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIEGo8E9s_8

Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by richardhod on Thursday May 02, 2019 @03:13AM (#19805524)
the second graph shown in that denialist video says nothing about arctic sea ice in the way the NOAA data do, which go back only to 1979. They are data about ice anomalies, not ice coverage. Also, I can't find a source for that second, allegedly IPCC graph, so it may be as fraudulent as the video's argument.
Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by baruchthescribe on Thursday May 02, 2019 @10:04AM (#19808008)
NOAA data goes back to the early 1970s. The IPCC paper can be found after a fairly trivial Google search here: https://web.archive.org/web/20120428072521/https://www.ipcc....

Good. So let's summarize:

- someone who disagrees with you can be called names

- you're ignorant of the history of NOAA

- if you can't find something, then the other person is a fraud

- but you claim they make fraudulent arguments anyway so that's OK

Very scientific.

Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by richardhod on Thursday May 02, 2019 @03:47PM (#19811966)
You are still cherrypicking by concentrating on these data, which are not conclusive. /so, you show me part of an in-depth paper saying that there were data before 1979 .It appears there might. However, in the paper, it says there was not much variance in sea ice significantly between the 1953 and 1984, but that 1960-80 was significantly colder anomaly period. (pp 224-5). But after that... much decline. None of what you talk about it particularly relevant, given ALL the other data about melting glaciers and sea ice extents since 1990, which you carefully ignore.

Look here, for example https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/longterm

Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by baruchthescribe on Friday May 03, 2019 @11:53AM (#19819491)
If you're living in the US, you could of course just look outside and notice that you've just had the coldest October-April period on record. But yeah, the Arctic is clearly melting.
Re:Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release by richardhod on Monday May 06, 2019 @11:48AM (#19840470)
Anyone reading HN should understand about variance in data sets. Given you're stooping to the level of 'It's cold at the moment, at this one data point', I cannot take your conversation seriously. You can do better, and you know it.