Re:Dark Matter Detector Records One of the Rarest Events Kno...
by a1369209993 on Saturday April 27, 2019 @03:49PM
(#19767295)
Are the two of you using the same answer to the question "Does a X% chance of 2 events (in given interval) contribute X% or 2X% to the chance of seeing one event?"? That is, do you mean [time for a 50% chance of seeing ≥1 decay] or [time to see, on average, 0.5 decays].
Re:Dark Matter Detector Records One of the Rarest Events Kno...
by contravariant on Saturday April 27, 2019 @06:01PM
(#19767891)
In my case I'm talking about the (average) time until the first decay.
Re:Dark Matter Detector Records One of the Rarest Events Kno...
by gus_massa on Saturday April 27, 2019 @10:29PM
(#19768912)
If you put two atoms A and B in an box and wait 1/2 of the half life, then the probability that the atom A survives is 1/sqrt(2). The probability that the atom B survives is also 1/sqrt(2). So (assuming independence) the probability that both survive is exactly 1/2. So you are right!
(I'd prefer to say that it's a property of the exponentially distribution, not the Poisson process.)
Re:Dark Matter Detector Records One of the Rarest Events Kno...
by fspeech on Saturday April 27, 2019 @04:20PM
(#19767415)
Poisson distribution is the limit of having infinite particles around.
Re:Dark Matter Detector Records One of the Rarest Events Kno...
by contravariant on Saturday April 27, 2019 @06:10PM
(#19767934)
It is, although the only difference is that the rate of this particular process changes after the first decay. Which makes it more of a continuous time Markov process, but the general idea is similar.
Really? As far as I know radioactive decay is mostly believed to be a Poisson process (or rather the time it takes for a single atom is believed to be exponentially distributed), in which case the time it will take is exactly one half, on average.